12th of August 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Europe Geopolitical & Energy Dislocation Strategy:
Tactical Positioning in Ceasefire Risk, Energy Input Repricing, and Defense Momentum

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

European equity thematics are experiencing heightened dispersion as geopolitical signals, energy input costs, and sector-relative positioning dominate price action:

The European Ceasefire/Rebuild Basket has seen sharp rerating on rising odds of a political breakthrough, fuelled by speculation over potential US–Russia negotiation channels and short-term tariff pauses.
European Defense equities, up close to +90% in 12 months, now show tactical vulnerability to ceasefire headlines — though structural momentum from budget increases and sovereign procurement cycles remains intact.
The spread between European Natural Gas–Exposed Industrials and Cyclical Chemicals still offers >12% downside in gas-exposed names before valuations align with suppressed TTF prices, while high-quality chemicals producers trade at a 15% discount to their 10-year median P/E despite likely earnings upgrades.
Oil & Energy Complex has softened on expectations of a Ukraine peace deal without continued Russian oil sanctions, with forecasts for Brent easing to the $80/barrel range by Q4 2025.

This environment is ideal for relative value hedges and event-driven thematic allocations — core pillars in FENRIR’s opportunistic reversion strategy playbook.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Geopolitical Event Risk – Ceasefire vs. Defense Momentum

Thesis: Defense contractors will remain long-term beneficiaries of NATO/EU rearmament and sovereign capability buildouts but are tactically exposed to short-term derating on ceasefire headlines.

Positioning:

Reduce core defense allocation ahead of Q3 headline risk and re-enter post-budget cycles in Q4.
Pair long European Industrials/Infrastructure (rebuild cycle plays) with short tactical defense sector exposure to capture 150–250bps on downside convergence.

2. Natural Gas Input Collapse – Chemicals Re-rating Potential

Thesis: Lower European gas prices (TTF back toward €33/MWh) materially improve cost-competitiveness for EU chemical producers, while gas-exposed industrials still trade as if energy costs remain structurally high.

Positioning:

Long overweight in cost-advantaged chemicals with visible backlog and pricing power.
Fund positions via underweight in gas-dependent industrials where analysts still model inflated input costs.
Target 15–20% relative outperformance from chemicals multiple repair + positive EPS revisions.

3. Oil Complex – From Risk Premium to Supply Normalization

Thesis: Anticipated OPEC+ supply increases combined with softer macro indicators put Brent under near-term pressure; peace-deal probability further limits the geopolitical risk premium.

Positioning:

Concentrate energy exposure in integrated majors with low breakevens (<$35/bbl) and dedicated shareholder return programs.
Sell short-term upside into news-driven rallies, recycling proceeds into longer-duration calls on downstream-levered names.

Portfolio Construction & Allocation

Target Weightings:

Rebuild & Infrastructure (Ceasefire Upcycle): 15%
Core Defense (post-Q3 re-entry): 12%
Chemicals Cost Advantage: 12%
Big Oil Cash Flow Compounders: 10%
Hedging & Relative Value Pairs: 8%
Cash/Tactical Reserve: 10–15% for opportunistic redeployment

Risk Controls:

Sector caps at 15–20% depending on cycle position
FX hedge 30% EUR/NOK on energy-related positions

Catalyst Timeline & Monitoring

Aug–Sep 2025: Ceasefire negotiation headlines; volatility in defense vs rebuild names.
Sep 2025: EU natural gas winter storage updates; LNG capacity coming online.
Q4 2025: EU/NATO budget confirmation; chemical sector earnings with cost-pass-through highlights.
Q4 2025: OPEC+ quota announcements and supply adjustments.

Risk Assessment & Mitigation

Headline Risk: Mitigated via structured pair trades, options overlays, and sector diversification.
Commodity Price Volatility: Addressed with breakeven sensitivity analysis and disciplined position sizing.
Sector Rotation: Countered by maintaining at least two cross-sector relative value positions at all times.

FENRIR’s Strategic Conviction

This European market phase offers textbook conditions for FENRIR’s relative value and tactical thematic approach:

Go long structural beneficiaries of energy cost normalization and post-conflict rebuilding.
Go short or hedge sectors overextended on short-term narratives, such as defense into ceasefire headlines or industrials overexposed to expensive energy assumptions.
Use volatility tactically — own optionality into catalyst dates, monetise during event-driven spikes.

Outcome: A portfolio designed to extract consistent α from geopolitical and macro swings while retaining structural β to Europe’s industrial and cost-competitiveness revival.

Ready to position for Europe’s geopolitical and energy dislocation opportunities?
Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Tactical Thematic Strategy allocations.

Investments involve risks, including potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. FENRIR’s strategies are suitable for qualified investors only. Consult your financial advisor.

#AlternativeInvestments #EuropeEnergy #Defense #RelativeValue #FENRIRGlobal

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7th of August 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – European Best in Class Strategy: Capturing Structural Growth in Top Winners

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

European equities have staged a remarkable recovery in 2025, with the STOXX 600 delivering approximately 9% total returns year-to-date amid political uncertainties and trade tensions. Key drivers include increased fiscal stimulus, surging defense spending (with NATO's new 5% GDP target by 2035), and inflecting power demand requiring massive infrastructure investment. Industrial production rose 1.7% in May 2025, reflecting resilience in capital goods (+2.7%) and energy (+3.7%), while small caps have outperformed broader indices by 13% YTD, supported by a strengthening euro and domestic focus.

FENRIR's proprietary analysis identifies Europe's top structural winners, forming our Best in Class basket with a median 20% annual EPS growth forecast through 2027 – outpacing the broader market's 15%. Quantified dynamics show aerospace and defense sectors benefiting from €800 billion in planned EU spending to 2029, while industrials leverage AI-driven datacenter capex at 11% CAGR. This environment creates asymmetric opportunities, with our Nordic expertise in resilient fiscal models positioning clients to capture undervalued growth amid USD weakness and US tariff risks.

Our strategy emphasizes high-beta, domestic-tilted names trading at discounts to US peers (e.g., 50% lower EV/EBITDA multiples), turning Europe's fiscal boost into conviction-driven alpha.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Defense and Aerospace Surge: NATO Spending Tailwinds

NATO's 5% GDP commitment drives demand for aerospace leaders like Safran and Rolls-Royce, with order backlogs at record €62.6 billion for peers. Rheinmetall exemplifies growth, posting 45.8% sales increase in Q1 2025.

Thesis: Geopolitical needs yield 25% CAGR; metrics include 3.7% EU industrial production rise in capital goods.
Implementation: Target 20-30% upside with entries below 12x EV/EBITDA, focusing on EUV technology enablers like ASML for AI computing.

2. Banking Resilience: Capital-Light Revenue Growth

Diversified banks like UniCredit forecast €30 billion in shareholder returns through 2027, with CET1 ratios at 15.3% and resilient NII growth of 1-3% above consensus.

Thesis: Market share gains in ECM/M&A support high-teens ROTE; Barclays' US cards business adds differentiation.
Implementation: 15-25% allocation with price targets at 1.2x book value, hedging tariff risks.

3. Industrials and Energy Transition: Infrastructure Boom

Siemens Energy and Schneider benefit from datacenter capex (>11% CAGR to 2028), with Siemens' partnerships yielding 10-12% revenue CAGR to FY28.

Thesis: Power grid revamps drive 20% EPS growth; free cash flow upgrades to €3.1 billion.
Implementation: 25% weighting with bull scenarios at 15% returns, entry on volatility dips.

4. Software and Tech Enablement: Cloud Migration Acceleration

SAP's cloud revenue surges support 20% EPS growth, trading at discounts to US Mag7 despite AI optionality.

Thesis: S/4 HANA cycle yields gross margin improvements; 120% YoY revenue potential.
Implementation: Tactical 15% exposure with 18-22% IRR targets.

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Diversified for secular growth:

Core Winners (60% allocation): Defense/aerospace and industrials
Growth Enablers (25% allocation): Banks and software
Defensive Tilt (15% allocation): Energy transition plays

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Tactical entries: Accumulate Rheinmetall below €500; Safran on tariff dips.
Framework: Sector limits at 25%; 30% EUR/USD hedging; 10% cash buffer; 15% drawdown tolerance.

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Q3 2025: Earnings beats in industrials; NATO spending updates.
Q4 2025: Infrastructure capex cycles; AI integration milestones.

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Trade Tensions: US tariffs compress multiples; mitigated by domestic tilt and hedges.
Fiscal Constraints: Slow EU growth (1.1% GDP forecast); addressed via resilient EPS names.
Volatility Spikes: Beta sensitivity; countered by cash reserves and rebalancing.

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

Currency protection: 30% ratios for NOK/EUR stability.
Concentration caps: Max 25% sector exposure.
ESG integration: SFDR Article 8 focus on sustainable defense tech.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Europe's structural themes – fiscal boosts, defense surges, and infrastructure needs – align with our opportunistic reversion patterns, delivering 15-25% potential returns. Our Nordic-informed approach turns regional challenges into high-conviction alpha for sophisticated investors.

Ready to capture Europe's best structural winners? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our European Best in Class Strategy.

Investments involve risks, including potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. FENRIR's strategies are suitable for qualified investors only. Consult your financial advisor. www.fenrir.fund

#AlternativeInvestments #EuropeanGrowth #DefenseSpending #InfrastructureBoom #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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28th of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Proprietary TOP 30 Unicorn Strategy: Exclusive Access to High-Demand Ventures with SpaceX Allocation

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

FENRIR's proprietary analysis of the Q2 2025 TOP 30 Unicorns– our refined, Nordic-informed ranking of the most sought-after venture-backed companies in global secondary markets – reveals unprecedented investor demand amid evolving dynamics. Derived from thousands of buy requests, daily market feedback, and our institutional-grade intelligence, this exclusive framework highlights AI's dominance (17 of 30 spots) and defense tech's resilience, with average last-round valuations at $51.1 billion (down 5.5% QoQ but up 65.2% YoY). Key drivers include company performance, public comparables, and sector trends, creating asymmetric alpha opportunities despite supply constraints and transfer restrictions.

Our unique positioning stems from FENRIR's deep Nordic expertise in resilient, long-term capital allocation, akin to Norway's sovereign wealth principles. We emphasize proprietary sourcing advantages, including our newly awarded $10 million direct investment in SpaceX's cap table (due August 1, 2025), providing clients with exclusive co-investment access to the #1 ranked company ($400 billion EV). Quantified metrics show Perplexity AI surging 12 ranks to #7 ($14 billion EV) on fundraising momentum, while Kraken jumps 15 spots to #11 ($4.3 billion EV) amid IPO expectations – underscoring our strategy's focus on liquidity catalysts and undervalued entries.

This clarified framework balances high-demand verticals like AI (50%+ of rankings) with emerging plays in cloud and fintech, positioning sophisticated investors to capture 25-40% potential returns amid market fluctuations.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. AI Leadership: Proprietary Intelligence Edge

FENRIR's models prioritize AI innovators, with Anthropic (#3, $61.5 billion EV) and OpenAI (#5, $300 billion EV) leading demand through safety research and deployment. Perplexity AI's climb reflects its $500 million round at $14 billion EV, while xAI (#8, $113 billion EV) drives solutions growth.

Thesis: AI's structural expansion offers 35% CAGR potential; FENRIR's proprietary metrics forecast 20-30% upside from tokenized integrations.
Implementation: Targeted secondary entries at 15% discounts, leveraging our networks for restricted-supply access.

2. Defense Tech Resilience: Nordic-Informed Allocation

Defense leaders like Anduril (#2, $30.5 billion EV) and Shield AI (#13, $5 billion EV) show sustained demand, with SpaceX (#1, $400 billion EV) as our flagship direct investment – enabling client co-allocation to aerospace transport at premium terms.

Thesis: Geopolitical tailwinds yield 25% returns; our $10 million SpaceX cap table position (closing August 1, 2025) provides asymmetric exposure.
Implementation: Higher portfolio weighting, with price targets at 1.2x current EVs on M&A catalysts.

3. Fintech and Cloud Efficiency: Value Reversion Plays

Stripe (#4, $91.5 billion EV) and Circle (#17, $8.1 billion EV post-IPO) anchor fintech, while Databricks (#12, $62 billion EV) and Vercel (#25, $3.3 billion EV) lead cloud/big data (five spots each).

Thesis: Valuation resets enable 15-25% upside; metrics include 89% executive adoption of cloud analytics.
Implementation: Opportunistic hedges for 10% drawdown protection, focusing on IPO-driven liquidity.

4. Emerging Innovators: High-Conviction New Entrants

Glean (#14, $7.2 billion EV) and Figure AI (#15, $39.5 billion EV) exemplify AI search/robotics, with Cursor (#24, $9.9 billion EV) surging in development platforms.

Thesis: Competition displaces laggards; FENRIR's proprietary screening targets 20% returns from first-time entrants.
Implementation: Tactical allocation, emphasizing fundraising milestones.

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Clarified allocations for precision and resilience:

AI and Defense Core (50% allocation): SpaceX/Anthropic focus, with direct SpaceX co-investment priority.
Fintech/Cloud Exposure (30% allocation): Stripe/Databricks emphasis.
Emerging Plays (20% allocation): Glean/Figure positions.

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Tactical entries: Prioritize SpaceX co-investment at $400 billion EV baseline; accumulate Perplexity below $14 billion.
Framework: Sector limits at 25% max; 30% currency hedging (NOK/USD); 10% liquidity buffer for opportunistic deployments.

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Q3 2025 (Pre-August Close): SpaceX allocation execution; Perplexity fundraising completion.
Q4 2025: Kraken IPO; cloud sector M&A waves.

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Supply and Transfer Restrictions: Limited secondary liquidity (e.g., Anduril, Databricks); mitigated by FENRIR's proprietary direct access, including SpaceX cap table.
Valuation Fluctuations: AI hype cycles; addressed via 15% drawdown tolerance and adaptive hedges.
Regulatory/IPO Delays: Fintech uncertainties; countered by diversified scenarios and Nordic compliance expertise.

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

Currency protection: 30% ratios for optimized USD exposure.
Concentration management: Strict caps with quarterly rebalancing.
ESG integration: SFDR Article 8 alignment, emphasizing sustainable AI/defense innovation.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

FENRIR's proprietary TOP 30 Unicorn framework – enhanced with our exclusive $10 million SpaceX cap table investment (due August 1, 2025) – delivers unparalleled access to high-demand ventures. This aligns with our philosophy of opportunistic reversion patterns and relative value hedges, creating asymmetric 25-40% return potential. As a regulated Norwegian AIFM, we invite qualified clients to co-invest in this elite opportunity, turning market demand into superior long-term performance.

Ready to secure your SpaceX allocation and capitalize on TOP 30 Unicorn leaders? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #Setter30 #SpaceXInvestment #AIVentures #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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25th of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

Why FENRIR’s $10M Direct SpaceX Investment Is a Top-Tier Opportunity – And Why You Should Co-Invest

Direct Pre-IPO SpaceX Cap Table Access – Join FENRIR’s $10M Co-Investment in the World’s Leading Space & Satellite Company at $400B Valuation

Key Benefits Bullets:

Exclusive, rare direct co-investment in SpaceX pre-IPO—#1 global venture-backed company
$400B valuation, $15B+ revenue in 2025, cash-flow positive, buying back shares
Dominant commercial & defense launch provider—half of all global launches
Starlink satellite internet: multi-trillion-dollar global growth potential
SpaceX is printing money, not raising capital—this is a generational outlier
Political tailwinds and regulatory advantage in 2025
Possible IPO ahead—lock in pre-IPO upside with FENRIR’s $10M allocation (due Aug 1, 2025)

Unprecedented Access:
FENRIR has secured a $10 million direct co-investment in SpaceX at a $400 billion valuation, providing exclusive cap table entry to the world’s most advanced, privately held aerospace and satellite communications company—currently #1 on the global secondary market ranking for venture-backed companies. This kind of direct, high-conviction, pre-IPO exposure is extraordinarily rare for institutional investors and is only possible through networks like FENRIR’s.

Category-Defining Financial Strength:
SpaceX is not only the industry leader—it is functionally “printing money.” The company is expected to generate over $15 billion in revenue in 2025, a 50%+ year-on-year increase, and is not raising outside capital: it is buying back shares and funding growth from its own cash flow. This self-sustaining model is unparalleled in high-growth technology and positions SpaceX as a generational outlier in financial performance.

Defense and Commercial Market Dominance:
SpaceX is the apex global launch provider, accounting for half of all global space launches in 2024—doubling down as the U.S. government’s primary contractor for military, intelligence, and civil space missions. With the Starship platform operational, the company is advancing toward Mars colonization and is set to secure even more major government and commercial contracts in 2025.

Starlink’s Multi-Trillion-Dollar Potential:
SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service is rapidly scaling, connecting remote and underserved markets, and is expected to become a cash cow as global demand for broadband connectivity soars. Analysts project Starlink alone could drive SpaceX’s enterprise value to over $2.5 trillion by 2030—a nearly 40% compound annual return from today’s valuation. No other company combines such defensible infrastructure with exponential global scale potential.

Political Tailwinds and Regulatory Advantage:
With a supportive U.S. administration prioritizing space innovation and commercial partnerships, SpaceX is positioned to benefit from new contracts, regulatory clarity, and strategic investments in space infrastructure. This creates a favorable environment for continued growth and optionality.

Why Act Now?
The SpaceX cap table is tightly controlled, with virtually no new direct allocations available to outside investors. FENRIR’s $10 million stake (due August 1, 2025) represents a rare, time-bound opportunity for qualified co-investors to gain exposure before any potential IPO—which, if it occurs, is likely to be a landmark event that will create significant value for early investors.

In summary:
Direct access to SpaceX at this stage is a once-in-a-generation chance to invest alongside the world’s leading technology and aerospace company—backed by a cash-flow-positive, high-margin business, dominant market position, and multi-trillion-dollar growth trajectory. This is the kind of asymmetric, high-conviction opportunity that defines FENRIR’s edge in global venture secondaries.

Ready to secure your allocation? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund

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25th of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Proprietary TOP 30 Strategy: Exclusive Access to High-Demand Ventures with SpaceX Allocation

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

FENRIR's proprietary analysis of the Q2 2025 TOP 30 Private Market Unicorns– our refined, Nordic-informed ranking of the most sought-after venture-backed companies in global secondary markets – reveals unprecedented investor demand amid evolving dynamics. Derived from thousands of buy requests, daily market feedback, and our institutional-grade intelligence, this exclusive framework highlights AI's dominance (17 of 30 spots) and defense tech's resilience, with average last-round valuations at $51.1 billion (down 5.5% QoQ but up 65.2% YoY). Key drivers include company performance, public comparables, and sector trends, creating asymmetric alpha opportunities despite supply constraints and transfer restrictions.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. AI Leadership: Proprietary Intelligence Edge

2. Defense Tech Resilience: Nordic-Informed Allocation

Thesis: Geopolitical tailwinds yield 25% returns; our $10 million SpaceX cap table position (closing August 1, 2025) provides asymmetric exposure. Implementation: 20% portfolio weighting, with price targets at 1.2x current EVs on M&A catalysts.

3. Fintech and Cloud Efficiency: Value Reversion Plays

Thesis: Valuation resets enable 15-25% upside; metrics include 89% executive adoption of cloud analytics. Implementation: Opportunistic hedges for 10% drawdown protection, focusing on IPO-driven liquidity.

4. Emerging Innovators: High-Conviction New Entrants

Glean (#14, $7.2 billion EV) and Figure AI (#15, $39.5 billion EV) exemplify AI search/robotics, with Cursor (#24, $9.9 billion EV) surging in development platforms.

Thesis: Competition displaces laggards; FENRIR's proprietary screening targets 20% returns from first-time entrants. Implementation: Tactical 10% allocation, emphasizing fundraising milestones.

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Clarified allocations for precision and resilience:

AI and Defense Core (50% allocation): SpaceX/Anthropic focus; (with direct SpaceX co-investment priority).
Fintech/Cloud Exposure (30% allocation): Stripe/Databricks emphasis
Emerging Plays (20% allocation): Glean/Figure positions

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Tactical entries: Prioritize SpaceX co-investment at $400 billion EV baseline; accumulate Perplexity below $14 billion.
Framework: Sector limits at 25% max; 30% currency hedging (NOK/USD); 10% liquidity buffer for opportunistic deployments.

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Q3 2025 (Pre-August Close): SpaceX allocation execution; Perplexity fundraising completion.
Q4 2025: Kraken IPO; cloud sector M&A waves.

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Supply and Transfer Restrictions: Limited secondary liquidity (e.g., Anduril, Databricks); mitigated by FENRIR's proprietary direct access, including SpaceX cap table.
Valuation Fluctuations: AI hype cycles; addressed via 15% drawdown tolerance and adaptive hedges.
Regulatory/IPO Delays: Fintech uncertainties; countered by diversified scenarios and Nordic compliance expertise.

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

Currency protection: 30% ratios for optimized USD exposure.
Concentration management: Strict caps with quarterly rebalancing.
ESG integration: SFDR Article 8 alignment, emphasizing sustainable AI/defense innovation.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

FENRIR's proprietary TOP 30 Private Unicorn framework – enhanced with our exclusive $10 million SpaceX cap table investment (due August 1, 2025) – delivers unparalleled access to high-demand ventures. This aligns with our philosophy of opportunistic reversion patterns and relative value hedges, creating asymmetric 25-40% return potential. As a regulated Norwegian AIFM, we invite qualified clients to co-invest in this elite opportunity, turning market demand into superior long-term performance.

Ready to secure your SpaceX allocation and capitalize? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund

#AlternativeInvestments #SpaceXInvestment #AIVentures #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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23th of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Onchain Migration Strategy: Capitalizing on the Tokenization Revolution

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

The tokenization of real-world assets has accelerated dramatically in 2025, with over $24 billion in assets now on public blockchains, marking a 3x increase since early 2023. Major institutions including BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, Siemens, and J.P. Morgan have issued tokenized assets, while fintechs like Robinhood launch stock tokens on Arbitrum for 24/7 global trading. This migration is reshaping capital markets, pulling liquidity toward programmable blockchain infrastructure for faster settlement, lower costs, and enhanced composability.

FENRIR's proprietary research identifies this as a structural shift, with tokenized treasuries and equities generating early liquidity pools. Figure has processed $41 billion in RWA transactions, holding $13 billion onchain, while Ondo has issued over $1 billion in tokenized Treasuries and plans expansion to 1,000+ tokenized stocks. These dynamics create asymmetric opportunities as assets flow to efficient rails, with tokenized equity volumes surging 350% month-over-month to $300 million.

Quantified metrics show BlackRock's BUIDL fund exceeding $2.6 billion in AUM, paying dividends natively on Ethereum, while corporate issuances like Siemens' €60 million digital bond demonstrate reduced intermediation costs by up to 50% compared to traditional methods. This environment favors forward-thinking strategies that capture the transition from legacy systems to onchain ecosystems.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Tokenized Equities and Infrastructure: Building the New Rails

Tokenized stocks and ETFs represent a core opportunity, with Robinhood's Stock Tokens enabling seamless transfers and reducing reliance on traditional brokers. Our analysis targets platforms like Robinhood Chain, optimized for global trading, where tokenized assets could capture 20-30% of equity volumes within 2-4 years.

Key metrics include tokenized equity AUM projected to reach $100 billion, triggering adoption by systemic allocators. Implementation focuses on early entrants with strong user bases, offering 15-25% upside in base scenarios through liquidity growth, versus 10% downside from regulatory delays.

2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Superior Crypto Exposure Vehicles

DAT companies provide leveraged exposure to digital assets via familiar equity structures, with advantages over ETFs including NAV growth through capital markets, low-cost borrowing, and staking yields. Examples include BitMine (BMNR), anchored by Pantera with a focus on Ethereum treasuries, and MicroStrategy's model of growing holdings per share.

Valuations show DATs trading at 2-7x premiums to NAV, driven by accretion from issuances and acquisitions. Our thesis includes 30% upside in bull cases from ecosystem participation, with price targets for Ethereum-related DATs at 5x current levels amid stablecoin growth to $2 trillion.

3. Real-World Asset Tokenization: Global Capital Access

Tokenized treasuries and private credit, such as Ondo's offerings and Figure's $13 billion onchain holdings, expand capital markets globally. Corporates like Société Générale issue digital bonds on Ethereum, achieving instant settlement and broader distribution.

Metrics indicate $1 billion+ in tokenized Treasuries, with yields enhanced by onchain composability. Implementation targets 20% portfolio yield potential, with bear case downside limited to 5-8% through diversified RWA exposure.

4. Stablecoins and Programmable Finance: The Foundation Layer

Stablecoins like USDC, with Circle's IPO up 7.3x, represent programmable money shifting deposits from banks. Ethereum hosts the majority of RWAs, positioning it for exponential demand as stablecoins grow to $2 trillion.

Our framework emphasizes Ethereum treasuries for their role in tokenization, with 25-40% upside from network effects and base case valuations at 10x current multiples.

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Allocate across onchain migration themes for balanced exposure:

Core Tokenization Holdings (50% allocation):

Tokenized equities and infrastructure: 30% in platforms like Robinhood Chain and Ondo
DAT companies: 20% focus on Ethereum treasuries like BitMine
Maximum single-name exposure: 3-4%

RWA and Stablecoin Exposure (30% allocation):

Tokenized treasuries and credit: 20% in Figure and Ondo products
Stablecoin ecosystems: 10% in USDC-related assets
Maximum single-name exposure: 2-3%

Defensive Programmable Assets (20% allocation):

Ethereum and layer-2 networks: 15% for foundational infrastructure
Diversified RWAs: 5% in digital bonds
Maximum single-name exposure: 2-2.5%

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Tactical Entry Points:

Robinhood Chain assets: Accumulate on volumes below $500 million monthly
DAT equities: Enter at 1.5-2x NAV premiums, target builds to 3x
Tokenized treasuries: Position in yields above 4.5%, add on AUM growth
Ethereum treasuries: Buy on dips below $3,000 per ETH equivalent

Risk Management Framework:

Sector limits: 25% in tokenized equities, 20% in DATs, 15% in RWAs
Currency hedging: 30% for non-EUR exposures to manage volatility
Liquidity: 10% cash reserve for opportunistic deployments
Drawdown tolerance: 15% per position with systematic rebalancing

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Q3 2025 Catalysts:

Robinhood Chain launch milestones and volume acceleration
DAT earnings demonstrating NAV growth
Regulatory clarity on tokenized wrappers

Q4 2025 Catalysts:

Tokenized AUM crossing $50 billion thresholds
Corporate onchain issuances and stablecoin expansions
Ethereum ecosystem updates driving RWA adoption

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Regulatory Risk: Delays in clarity for tokenized assets could compress volumes; mitigated by diversification across compliant platforms like Arbitrum and Ethereum.

Liquidity Risk: Early-stage onchain markets may face volatility; addressed through position sizing and liquidity reserves, drawing on FENRIR's asset verification expertise for NAV monitoring.

Market Risk: Crypto winters could impact DAT performance; countered by focusing on premium-trading vehicles that grow holdings per share, reducing effective downside.

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

Currency Protection: 30% hedge ratios to optimize returns amid USD fluctuations.

Concentration Management: Strict sector caps and collaboration with service providers like Apex for robust verification.

Liquidity Provisions: 10% cash allocation enables flexibility, supported by ongoing business strategy partnerships.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

This onchain migration strategy captures the inevitable shift of capital markets to blockchain infrastructure, aligning with our philosophy of opportunistic reversion patterns and relative value hedges. The combination of growing liquidity pools, institutional adoption, and programmable finance creates asymmetric risk-reward profiles, with potential for 25-50% annual returns in base scenarios.

Our institutional-grade analysis, informed by Nordic regulatory frameworks, emphasizes sustainable tokenization that integrates ESG considerations and cross-border opportunities. This positions sophisticated investors to benefit from the structural transformation of global finance.

Ready to capitalize on the tokenization revolution and onchain migration? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Onchain Migration Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #Tokenization #OnchainMigration #DigitalAssets #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

FENRIR Contrarian Investment Themes

Capitalizing on Market Dislocations and Sentiment Extremes

18th of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Global Contrarian Investment Strategy: Market Dislocations Create Asymmetric Opportunities

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

F contrarian themes present compelling opportunities across multiple asset classes where negative sentiment has created significant valuation dislocations. Current market dynamics show the MSCI Emerging Markets Index delivering 12.7% returns in Q2 2025, while Chinese equities trade at 11-15x P/E ratios versus 26x for the S&P 500. These metrics highlight the asymmetric risk-reward profiles that define contrarian investment opportunities.

Our analysis reveals that closed-end funds are trading at -4.9% average discounts with 9% yields, while the Russell 2000 remains down approximately 1% year-to-date despite superior long-term growth potential. These conditions create fertile ground for alpha generation through disciplined contrarian positioning.

Market volatility has driven institutional capital away from perceived risk assets, creating pricing inefficiencies across Chinese banks offering 6% dividend yields, European small-caps trading at 30% discounts to fair value, and real estate opportunities with compelling yield spreads.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. China Equity Opportunity: Structural Mispricing at Scale

Chinese equities represent the most compelling contrarian theme, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 18.52% year-over-year yet trading at historically attractive valuations. The Big-6 state-owned banks offer forward dividend yields of 5.8%, creating a 410 basis point spread over 10-year government bonds.

Government policy support includes regulatory pushes for semi-annual dividends, with major banks like ICBC and Bank of China distributing $24.3 billion in Q1 2025. This represents approximately half of their annual distributions, establishing a precedent for consistent income generation.

Mercedes-Benz exemplifies European contrarian opportunities, trading at 5.3x P/E ratios while offering compelling operational metrics. The company's 9% dividend yield versus Tesla's 133x P/E ratio highlights the valuation disconnect between value and growth narratives.

2. Emerging Markets Leadership: Structural Outperformance

Emerging markets delivered 12% returns in Q2 2025, driven by Taiwan's 26% surge and South Korea's 33% advance. Technology sector leadership with 24% returns reflects the acceleration of AI development and infrastructure investment cycles.

Currency tailwinds from US dollar weakness have created favorable conditions for EM debt and equities. The sector benefits from strengthened fiscal positions post-COVID and diversified economic structures less dependent on US trade flows.

Our research identifies specific opportunities in countries with low US revenue exposure and strong domestic consumption drivers. These markets offer superior risk-adjusted returns while providing portfolio diversification benefits during periods of US market concentration.

3. Real Estate Contrarian Plays: Value at Historic Discounts

Commercial real estate presents exceptional contrarian opportunities, with properties trading at significant discounts to replacement cost. Scott Rechler's RXR recently signed a $1.1 billion letter of intent for 590 Madison Avenue, marking the first billion-dollar office transaction in NYC in nearly three years.

The sector faces a $720 million funding gap in Hong Kong between 2025-2027, creating opportunities for private credit and distressed asset acquisition. Rental yields of 3.5% versus 2.3% mortgage costs provide built-in safety margins for income-focused strategies.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) offers 6.7% dividend yields with 26 years of consecutive distribution growth, representing the intersection of contrarian energy sector positioning and defensive income characteristics.

4. Small-Cap Value Resurgence: Operational Leverage to Recovery

UK small-caps trade at 30% discounts to fair value, with 14 consecutive quarters of outflows creating forced selling pressure. The sector benefits from M&A activity, with 1 in 20 UK-listed companies entering public offer periods in 2024.

Closed-end funds averaging -4.9% discounts with 9% yields represent technical opportunities where sentiment-driven pricing diverges from underlying asset values. These structures provide access to professional management at substantial discounts.

The Russell 2000's underperformance versus large-caps creates opportunity for tactical allocation, particularly as economic conditions normalize and small-cap operational leverage drives earnings recovery.

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Core Contrarian Holdings (50% allocation):

Chinese banks and quality equities: 20% allocation
Emerging markets leaders: 15% allocation
Real estate and REITs: 15% allocation
Maximum single-name exposure: 3-4%

Tactical Opportunities (30% allocation):

Closed-end funds at wide discounts: 15% allocation
Small-cap value opportunities: 15% allocation
Enhanced position sizing: 2-3% maximum per holding

Currency and Commodity Contrarian Plays (20% allocation):

Japanese yen structural positioning: 10% allocation
Gold and precious metals: 5% allocation
Energy infrastructure: 5% allocation

Risk Management and Hedging

Diversification Discipline:

Maximum geographic concentration: 25% any single region
Sector limits: 20% maximum exposure to any single sector
Liquidity requirements: 15% cash and liquid alternatives

Downside Protection:

Position sizing based on volatility and correlation analysis
Systematic rebalancing during extreme moves
Currency hedging for non-base currency exposures

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Sentiment Risk: Contrarian positions require patience as negative sentiment can persist longer than fundamental analysis suggests. We mitigate this through diversification across multiple contrarian themes and systematic position sizing.

Liquidity Risk: Many contrarian opportunities exist in less liquid markets or structures. Our approach emphasizes maintaining adequate liquidity reserves and avoiding overconcentration in illiquid assets.

Timing Risk: Contrarian strategies can experience significant drawdowns before reversals occur. We address this through dollar-cost averaging, disciplined rebalancing, and position sizing based on conviction levels.

Catalyst Timeline

Q3 2025 Catalysts:

Chinese earnings reports demonstrating policy support effectiveness
EM central bank policy normalization
Real estate transaction volume recovery

Q4 2025 Catalysts:

US election-related trade policy clarity
Small-cap earnings revisions and guidance updates
Closed-end fund activist campaigns and discount narrowing

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

These contrarian themes align perfectly with our investment philosophy of identifying opportunistic reversion patterns and relative value opportunities. The current environment presents rare asymmetric risk-reward characteristics where patient capital can benefit from market dislocations.

Our Nordic-informed approach to risk management provides essential discipline for contrarian investing, while our institutional-grade analysis ensures focus on fundamentally sound opportunities trading at temporary discounts. The combination of negative sentiment, attractive valuations, and emerging policy support creates compelling conditions for alpha generation.

The key insight is that markets often overreact to negative developments, creating opportunities for sophisticated investors who can differentiate between temporary sentiment and permanent impairment. Our contrarian positioning targets these inefficiencies while maintaining appropriate risk controls.

Ready to capitalize on market dislocations and sentiment extremes? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Global Contrarian Investment Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #ContrarianInvesting #MarketDislocations #GlobalOpportunities #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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FENRIR Accelerated Bonus Depreciation Strategy

US Tax Policy Drives Infrastructure Investment Cycle

18th of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Accelerated Bonus Depreciation Strategy: Capitalizing on Tax-Driven Infrastructure Boom

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB), signed on July 4th, 2025, has introduced permanent 100% bonus depreciation for qualified property acquired after January 19, 2025. This policy reduces the after-tax cost of capital-intensive investments by approximately 5% in key sectors, triggering a significant shift in capital allocation across US markets. FENRIR's proprietary research identifies a basket of companies representing $1.47 trillion in market capitalization, where divergent performance patterns highlight emerging opportunities in infrastructure and related industries.

Our institutional-grade analysis reveals that first-order beneficiaries—companies directly gaining tax advantages—are trading at compressed multiples, while second-order beneficiaries—such as equipment suppliers—are beginning to reflect multi-year capital expenditure growth. This market dynamic creates asymmetric opportunities for alpha generation through targeted exposure to tax policy tailwinds and fundamental improvements.

Quantified metrics from our research show the basket's 2025 capital expenditure spending revised higher by 26% in the last three months, compared to 13% for broader market indices. This acceleration underscores the potential for enhanced cash flows and revenue growth, positioning sophisticated investors to benefit from the evolving investment landscape.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. First-Order Beneficiary Optimization: Immediate Cash Flow Enhancement

The OBBB's 100% bonus depreciation delivers substantial present value benefits to capital-intensive sectors. United Airlines (UAL) stands out with a projected $320 million tax boost from its $6.5 billion 2024 capital program. Trading at 9.2x earnings, UAL offers value given its large order book and route network strengths.

Union Pacific (UNP) benefits from $145 million in immediate tax savings on its $3 billion capital plan, including track renewal and locomotive upgrades. This positions UNP for efficiency gains and premium valuations as infrastructure spending ramps up.

NextEra Energy (NEE) leverages the policy for hundreds of millions in additional cash flow from its $4-5 billion annual program, supporting renewable development and creating a cycle of growth.

2. Telecommunications Infrastructure Acceleration

Telecom firms gain from accelerated deductions on network gear and infrastructure. Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), with a combined $366 billion market cap, are poised for $200-250 million in annual cash flow improvements. Offering dividend yields of 6.6% and 4.1%, respectively, these companies maintain strong credit profiles for sustained capital deployment.

3. Second-Order Equipment Growth: Supply Chain Momentum

Equipment manufacturers benefit from increased demand. Boeing (BA) and GE Aerospace (GE) show strong performance (+29.6% and +57.9% year-to-date), driven by fleet modernization. Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE), at 20.2x and 24.2x earnings, provide exposure to infrastructure cycles with robust balance sheets.

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Allocate strategically for risk-adjusted returns:

Core Holdings (60% allocation):

First-order focus: 35% in UAL, UNP, NEE
Maximum single-name exposure: 3-4%

Growth Exposure (25% allocation):

Second-order emphasis: GE, BA, CAT, DE
Maximum single-name exposure: 2-3%

Defensive Integration (15% allocation):

Telecom positions: VZ, T
Maximum single-name exposure: 2-2.5%

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Tactical Entry Points:

UAL: Accumulate below $95, build to $110
UNP: Enter near $220, add toward $240
NEE: Accumulate in $72-78 range
GE: Add on aerospace strength
CAT/DE: Position on commodity dips

Risk Management Framework:

Sector limits: 25% utilities, 20% industrials, 15% aerospace
Currency hedging: 30% for diversified exposure
Liquidity: 10% cash reserve
Drawdown tolerance: 15% per name

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Q3 2025 Catalysts:

Earnings reports highlighting tax benefits
Policy implementation updates

Q4 2025 Catalysts:

Capital expenditure guidance
Infrastructure planning cycles

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Regulatory Risk: Potential policy changes; mitigated by diversification.

Execution Risk: Varying capital allocation effectiveness; addressed through fundamental screening.

Market Risk: Volatility; countered by stable cash flow focus.

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

Currency Protection: 30% hedge ratios for optimized returns.

Concentration Management: Strict sector caps for balance.

Liquidity Provisions: Cash allocation for flexibility.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

This strategy captures the intersection of tax policy and infrastructure growth, aligning with our philosophy of opportunistic patterns and relative value hedges. The asymmetric risk-reward profile supports long-term value creation for qualified investors.

Ready to capitalize on tax-driven infrastructure opportunities? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Accelerated Bonus Depreciation Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #InfrastructureInvesting #AcceleratedDepreciation #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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July 3, 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Nordic Tanker Renaissance: Capturing the Summer Liquidity Wave

The global crude tanker market stands at an inflection point where geopolitical realignments, supply constraints, and seasonal demand patterns converge to create compelling asymmetric opportunities. FENRIR's Nordic Tanker Strategy positions sophisticated investors to capitalize on what DNB Carnegie analysts characterize as an emerging "tanker festival" – a convergence of fundamental catalysts that we believe will drive exceptional returns through H2 2025 and beyond.

Market Context: The Perfect Storm Brewing

OPEC+ Production Acceleration Creates Immediate Catalyst

OPEC+ announced a 411,000 barrel-per-day production increase effective July 2025, representing the third consecutive monthly escalation. This aggressive production ramp, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, signals a strategic pivot toward market share recapture that directly benefits seaborne crude transportation. With Chinese strategic petroleum reserves requiring replenishment and seasonal demand strengthening into Q4, we anticipate sustained cargo flow acceleration through the critical summer-to-winter transition period.

Dark Fleet Sanctions Reshape Competitive Dynamics

Western regulators have designated 35% of the 669-vessel shadow fleet under sanctions, with the UK alone sanctioning 100 dark fleet tankers in May 2025. This systematic removal of sanctioned capacity creates a structural advantage for legitimate, ESG-compliant operators. Norwegian-listed tanker companies, with their advanced scrubber technology and transparent governance, emerge as primary beneficiaries of this market bifurcation.

Supply-Demand Imbalance Intensifies

Fleet growth projections of 2.0-2.5% significantly lag anticipated demand growth, creating the tightest supply-demand balance since 2020. Limited newbuilding orders and accelerated scrapping of older vessels compound this shortage, establishing a multi-year runway for premium freight rates.

Strategic Investment Framework

Theme 1: Premium Fleet Quality Commands Structural Premiums

Thesis: ECO-compliant vessels with scrubber technology capture disproportionate market share as ESG mandates intensify.

Key Metrics: 100% ECO-scrubber fleets (Okeanis), advanced environmental technology adoption across targets
Risk-Reward: 15-20% operational cost advantages translate to 200-300 basis points margin expansion
Catalyst Timeline: Q3 2025 as European emission regulations tighten

Theme 2: Cyclical Rate Recovery Amplifies Leveraged Returns

Thesis: Current VLCC rates of USD 45-50k/day represent cyclical troughs, with DNB Carnegie forecasting Q4 rates exceeding USD 75k/day.

Key Metrics: Baltic Dry Tanker Index (BDTI) at 1,002 vs. historical average of 1,400+
Risk-Reward: Each USD 10k/day rate increase drives 25-30% EBITDA expansion for leveraged operators
Catalyst Timeline: July-September 2025 OPEC+ volume increases

Theme 3: Dividend Sustainability at Attractive Yields

Thesis: Cash generation at current rates supports 12-17% dividend yields while maintaining balance sheet flexibility.

Key Metrics: Portfolio weighted dividend yield of 13.0% with 80-90% payout ratios
Risk-Reward: Defensive income component with 50%+ total return potential
Catalyst Timeline: Q3 earnings announcements in August-November 2025

Theme 4: Norwegian Maritime Excellence Premium

Thesis: Nordic operators benefit from superior operational efficiency, regulatory compliance, and ESG positioning.

Key Metrics: Norwegian maritime industry NOK 219 billion value creation, world's 5th largest fleet by value
Risk-Reward: 10-15% operational premium versus global peers
Catalyst Timeline: Ongoing competitive advantage expansion

Theme 5: Consolidation-Driven Market Leadership

Thesis: Industry consolidation favors well-capitalized, technologically advanced operators with strong balance sheets.

Key Metrics: Combined fleet of 119 vessels across target companies, average age 6-7 years
Risk-Reward: Market share gains drive pricing power and operational leverage
Catalyst Timeline: 2025-2027 consolidation cycle acceleration

Implementation Strategy

Core Portfolio Construction (12-15% Total Allocation)

Frontline PLC (FRO.NO): 6-8% allocation

Entry Target: NOK 165-175 (current: NOK 169.5)
Price Target: NOK 285 (+68% upside potential)
Rationale: Global market leader, diversified fleet, proven management track record

Okeanis Eco Tankers (OET.NO): 3-4% allocation

Entry Target: NOK 210-225 (current: NOK 222.5)
Price Target: NOK 335 (+50% upside potential)3
Rationale: Premium young fleet, 100% ECO-scrubber technology, superior dividend yield

DHT Holdings (DHT.US): 2-3% allocation

Entry Target: USD 10.5-11.0 (current: USD 10.8)
Price Target: USD 14.3 (+32% upside potential)1
Rationale: Pure VLCC exposure, counter-cyclical investment philosophy

Implementation Timeline

Phase 1 (July 2025): Initiate 60% of target allocations during summer weakness
Phase 2 (August-September 2025): Complete positioning ahead of seasonal strength
Phase 3 (Q4 2025): Evaluate profit-taking opportunities on rate spikes above USD 75k/day

Currency and Commodity Hedging

NOK/USD Exposure: Natural hedge through USD-denominated revenues
Oil Price Correlation: Long bias benefits from higher crude prices driving transport demand
Interest Rate Sensitivity: Monitor floating rate debt exposure, hedge if rates exceed 6%

Risk Assessment & Management

Principal Risks and Mitigation Strategies

1. Commodity Price Volatility (HIGH IMPACT, MEDIUM PROBABILITY)

Risk: Oil price collapse reduces transportation demand
Mitigation: Maintain 20% cash allocation, implement stop-losses at -15% portfolio level
Monitoring: Weekly WTI/Brent price analysis, OPEC+ production compliance tracking

2. Geopolitical Escalation (MEDIUM IMPACT, MEDIUM PROBABILITY)

Risk: Middle East conflict disrupts shipping routes
Mitigation: Geographic diversification across Atlantic/Pacific trades
Monitoring: Daily geopolitical risk assessment, alternative route contingency planning

3. Chinese Demand Deterioration (HIGH IMPACT, LOW PROBABILITY)

Risk: Chinese strategic reserve completion reduces import demand
Mitigation: Monitor alternative demand sources (India, Southeast Asia)
Monitoring: Monthly Chinese crude import data, inventory level tracking

4. Regulatory Changes (MEDIUM IMPACT, LOW PROBABILITY)

Risk: Environmental regulations increase operational costs
Mitigation: Focus on ECO-compliant vessels with scrubber technology
Monitoring: IMO regulation tracking, ESG compliance scoring

Position Sizing Guidelines

Maximum Single Name: 4% of portfolio
Maximum Sector: 15% of portfolio
Liquidity Requirements: Maintain ability to exit 50% of positions within 5 trading days
Correlation Limits: Maximum 0.7 correlation between positions

Monitoring Framework

Daily: Freight rate movements, spot charter fixture data
Weekly: OPEC+ production reports, Chinese import statistics
Monthly: Company operational updates, fleet utilization metrics
Quarterly: Financial results, dividend sustainability analysis

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Nordic Maritime Expertise Advantage
FENRIR's deep understanding of Norwegian shipping dynamics, cultivated through Olav Trent's extensive industry network and 7-year track record of 31% net annual returns, positions us to identify value creation opportunities before broader market recognition. Our established relationships with management teams, shipbrokers, and industry analysts provide privileged access to market intelligence and investment timing advantages.

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Asymmetric Risk-Reward Characteristics
Current valuations reflect excessive pessimism about tanker fundamentals, creating entry opportunities at 0.9-1.1x NAV multiples for premium fleet operators. The combination of structural supply constraints, improving demand dynamics, and ESG-driven fleet differentiation creates multiple expansion potential exceeding 100% over our 18-month investment horizon.

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Long-Term Value Creation Thesis
The global energy transition paradoxically strengthens crude tanker fundamentals through several mechanisms: extended transportation distances as production shifts from depleted conventional sources, premium freight rates for ESG-compliant vessels, and industry consolidation favoring technologically advanced operators. Nordic tanker companies, with their commitment to environmental excellence and operational transparency, emerge as long-term winners in this evolving landscape.

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Sustainable Dividend Infrastructure
Portfolio companies demonstrate robust cash generation capabilities, with break-even rates below USD 15k/day and current spot rates exceeding USD 45k/day. This operational leverage, combined with conservative capital allocation policies, supports sustainable dividend yields of 12-17% while maintaining growth investment capacity and balance sheet flexibility.

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Ready to capture the Nordic tanker renaissance opportunity? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Nordic Tanker Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #FENRIRGlobal #NordicShipping #TankerInvesting #ESGInvesting #DividendStrategy

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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1st of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – GSE Preferred Shares Strategy: Navigating Complex Conservatorship Exit Mechanics

Market Context & Strategic Assessment

The GSE preferred shares market presents a sophisticated opportunity requiring deep understanding of conservatorship mechanics, capital structure dynamics, and regulatory frameworks. FENRIR's analysis addresses the mounting retail investor enthusiasm following Bill Ackman's $30+ price projections while providing institutional-grade assessment of the structural challenges facing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's path to privatization.

Recent PSPA amendments in January 2025 restored Treasury's consent rights for conservatorship termination, establishing a methodical process for eventual release that includes public input assessment and Financial Stability Oversight Council briefings. However, the ~$340 billion senior preferred stock liquidation preference creates fundamental structural obstacles that retail investors following momentum strategies often misunderstand.

Strategic Framework for GSE Preferred Share Allocation

Liquidity-Focused Positioning: FMCKJ

Investment Rationale:

FMCKJ (Freddie Mac Fixed-to-Floating): Offers superior trading liquidity with LIBOR-indexed structure requiring transition to SOFR upon dividend resumption
Transition Mechanics: 3-month LIBOR to 3-month SOFR and 12-month LIBOR to 1-year CMT with appropriate credit adjustments provides operational continuity without requiring 2/3 shareholder approval for non-adverse modifications
Risk Management: Higher liquidity enables tactical position adjustments during conservatorship exit volatility

Maximum Dividend Strategy: High-Coupon Preferred Series

Freddie Mac High-Yield Exposure:

FMCCK, FMCCP, FMCCT, FMCKI: Target maximum dividend payments upon resumption, with coupons ranging from 5.57% to 6.55%
Strategic Advantage: Higher absolute dividend payments provide enhanced income generation during transition period

Fannie Mae Complementary Holdings:

FNMFN (Variable Rate Series O), FNMAI (6.75% Series Q): Diversified rate structures with FNMFN offering floating-rate protection and FNMAI providing fixed high-coupon exposure

Par Value Recovery: Low-Trading Preferred Series

Freddie Mac Par-Recovery Candidates:

FMCCG through FMCCN series: Lower-trading volume securities offering potential par value recovery upon successful conservatorship exit
Risk Profile: Higher execution risk but asymmetric upside if full par value restoration occurs

Fannie Mae Variable Rate Exposure:

FNMAO (Series G), FNMAP (Series F): Variable rate structures providing interest rate hedge while maintaining par recovery potential

Critical Analysis: Debunking the "10% Moment" Fallacy

Structural Flaws in Popular Retail Narratives

The widely circulated "10% moment" theory represents a fundamental misunderstanding of GSE capital structure realities:

1. Net Worth Sweep Override:
The 2012 Net Worth Sweep fundamentally altered the original 10% dividend structure, requiring 100% of earnings to flow to Treasury rather than allowing capital accumulation for senior preferred paydown.

2. Original PSPA Restrictions:
GSEs were never permitted to pay down senior preferred shares below the initial $1 billion liquidation preference while Treasury's commitment remained active.

3. Counterfactual Analysis Limitations:
The hypothetical 2018 payoff scenario ignores the reality that GSEs likely would not have prioritized senior preferred reduction given portfolio growth requirements and regulatory capital needs.

4. Liquidation Preference Escalation:
Current ~$340 billion liquidation preference reflects accumulated earnings sweeps and draws, creating an insurmountable obstacle even at historical 10% dividend rates.

Capital Structure Resolution: Conversion vs. Cancellation Analysis

Senior Preferred Share Treatment Options

Conversion Scenario:

Government Ownership: Converting $340 billion in senior preferred shares would result in >80% Treasury ownership, potentially approaching the 92% level seen in AIG's restructuring
Precedent Analysis: AIG's successful privatization with 92% initial government ownership demonstrates investor tolerance for high dilution scenarios when underlying value creation is compelling
Junior Preferred Impact: Massive common share issuance from SPS conversion would severely dilute existing junior preferred conversion values

Cancellation Alternative:

Economic Justification: Treasury has received $301 billion in dividends against $191 billion in actual disbursements, providing economic basis for principal forgiveness
Political Reality: Government unlikely to forfeit hundreds of billions in liquidation preference without substantial compensation mechanism
Hybrid Structure: Partial cancellation with Periodic Commitment Fee (PCF) structure provides ongoing government revenue stream while enabling privatization

Regulatory Capital Framework Implications

Current FHFA capital requirements necessitate $328 billion in combined regulatory capital for both GSEs, creating additional complexity beyond senior preferred resolution.
The interaction between:

4% leverage ratio requirements
Risk-based capital standards
Stress buffer requirements
Countercyclical buffer provisions

Creates a capital need that exceeds current retained earnings of $147 billion, requiring substantial equity raises even with senior preferred resolution.

LIBOR Transition and Operational Considerations

Technical Implementation for LIBOR-Referenced Securities

FNMAS and FMCKJ Transition Requirements:

Non-Adverse Standard: Administrative changes to reference rates do not require 2/3 shareholder approval under standard preferred share terms
Replacement Methodology: 3-month LIBOR to 3-month SOFR and 12-month LIBOR to 1-year CMT with credit spread adjustments maintains economic equivalence
Implementation Timeline: Transition must occur upon dividend resumption to ensure operational continuity

Risk Assessment and Portfolio Construction

Principal Investment Risks

Regulatory Uncertainty:
Ongoing litigation and potential PSPA amendments create execution risk around conservatorship exit timing and structure.

Dilution Risk:
Senior preferred conversion scenarios create massive dilution for existing shareholders, with common share counts potentially increasing by orders of magnitude.

Political Risk:
Congressional involvement in GSE reform could alter Treasury's negotiating position and extend conservatorship timeline beyond current expectations.

FENRIR's Implementation Framework

Diversified Approach:

40% Liquidity-Focused: FMCKJ and high-volume preferred series for tactical flexibility
35% High-Dividend: Maximum coupon securities for income generation during transition
25% Par Recovery: Lower-volume securities with asymmetric upside potential

Risk Management:

Position Sizing: Maximum 6% portfolio allocation to GSE preferred complex
Liquidity Requirements: Maintain 60% allocation in securities with >$10M average daily volume
Scenario Planning: Stress test portfolio performance across conversion, cancellation, and extended conservatorship scenarios

Strategic Conviction and Implementation

The GSE preferred share opportunity requires sophisticated understanding of complex capital structure mechanics and regulatory frameworks. While retail enthusiasm following Bill Ackman's projections has created momentum, successful implementation demands careful navigation of liquidation preference constraints, LIBOR transition requirements, and dilution scenarios.

FENRIR's approach emphasizes diversified exposure across liquidity, dividend, and par recovery strategies while maintaining strict risk management discipline around position sizing and scenario planning. The ultimate resolution of the ~$340 billion senior preferred liquidation preference will determine the viability of current junior preferred valuations and requires careful monitoring of Treasury policy evolution under the current administration.

Ready to navigate GSE preferred share complexity with institutional-grade analysis and risk management? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our GSE Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #GSEPreferred #ConservatorshipExit #StructuredProducts #RegulatoryCapital #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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1st of July 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Nordic Digital Asset Treasury Strategy: Capturing NAV Arbitrage and Asymmetric Risk-Reward

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

The emergence of Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) represents one of the most compelling investment opportunities in 2025, offering sophisticated investors access to a new frontier in public market crypto exposure with built-in asymmetric risk-reward characteristics. FENRIR introduces its Nordic Digital Asset Treasury Strategy, leveraging our deep regional expertise to identify and capitalize on DAT opportunities while maintaining strict risk management protocols suited for Norwegian and European regulatory frameworks.
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The DAT landscape has evolved rapidly, with publicly traded companies now holding 841,715 BTC worth over $90 billion, while private firms control another 292,047 BTC worth over $31 billion. This structural adoption creates sustainable supply constraints and institutional validation that supports long-term value appreciation for quality DAT operators.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Asymmetric NAV Arbitrage: The Core Opportunity

Investment Thesis:
DATs offer unique "heads you win, tails you don't lose much" positioning by investing at or near 1.0x Net Asset Value (NAV) before companies trade at premiums in the open market. The peer set currently trades at 1.5x-10.0x NAV, with MicroStrategy (Strategy) commanding a +112% premium to its combined Bitcoin holdings and software business fair value.

Upside Scenario:

Near-term Alpha: NAV premium capture as companies establish market presence
Long-term Value: Growing NAV-per-share through operational leverage and digital asset appreciation
Multiple Expansion: Premium sustainability as institutional adoption accelerates

Downside Protection:

NAV Floor: Investment at 1.0x NAV preserves underlying digital asset exposure
Consolidation Catalyst: Below-NAV trading creates M&A opportunities for disciplined operators
Regulatory Tailwinds: Clear U.S. frameworks and EU MiCA implementation provide operational certainty

2. Nordic Regulatory Advantage

Norwegian Framework:
Norwegian authorities maintain a pragmatic approach to digital assets, with clear tax treatment (assets subject to wealth tax) and no VAT on Bitcoin transactions. The pending implementation of MiCA regulation will harmonize crypto-asset service provider requirements while maintaining Norway's technology-neutral regulatory stance.

Operational Benefits:

Regulatory Clarity: Established framework for corporate digital asset holdings
Tax Efficiency: Predictable treatment for treasury management strategies
EU Harmonization: MiCA implementation provides cross-border operational consistency

3. Quality Operator Selection Criteria

Management Alignment:
FENRIR prioritizes DAT operators with incentive-aligned management teams committed to shareholder value creation rather than empire building. Key selection criteria include proven track records in capital allocation, transparent governance structures, and commitment to buybacks or M&A when trading below NAV.

Business Model Sophistication:
Target companies demonstrate value creation beyond passive accumulation, including:

Institutional Lending: Bitcoin Treasury Corporation's 771 BTC lending program for trading desks
Operational Integration: Revenue generation from digital asset operations
ESG Leadership: Renewable energy adoption and sustainable mining practices

FENRIR's Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Geographic Allocation:

50% Nordic Focus: Swedish and Norwegian DAT opportunities with strong regulatory positioning
30% European Exposure: EU-based operators benefiting from MiCA harmonization
20% Global Selective: Best-in-class international DATs with superior fundamentals

Asset Class Diversification:

60% Bitcoin Treasury: Core exposure to BTC-focused operators
25% Multi-Asset DATs: Ethereum and diversified digital asset holdings
15% Infrastructure Plays: Mining operators and blockchain infrastructure companies

Risk Management Protocol

Position Sizing:

Maximum 8% Single Name: Concentration limits with stop-loss discipline
Sector Ceiling 25%: Total DAT exposure within diversified portfolio context
Liquidity Requirements: Minimum 3-month average daily volume thresholds

Hedging Strategies:

Currency Management: NOK/USD/EUR exposure hedging for international positions
Volatility Protection: Options overlays for tail risk management
Regulatory Monitoring: Continuous assessment of evolving frameworks

Market Dynamics & Competitive Landscape

Supply-Demand Fundamentals

Institutional Adoption Acceleration:
Coinbase's S&P 500 inclusion has forced index managers worldwide to acknowledge digital assets, creating structural demand for DAT exposure among investors unable to hold cryptocurrencies directly. This trend represents early innings of mainstream institutional adoption.

Performance Validation:
Leading operators demonstrate compelling track records, with Pantera Bitcoin Fund achieving 1,000x returns (131,165% net of fees) since inception, while more recent DAT strategies show consistent NAV premium sustainability.

Nordic Market Opportunity

Regulatory Environment:
Swedish and Norwegian banks have historically discouraged direct Bitcoin investment, creating pent-up demand for equity-based exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. DAT companies provide familiar investment vehicles for Nordic institutional and retail investors seeking digital asset allocation.

Market Entry Timing:
Current market conditions present optimal entry opportunities, with established operators trading at normalized premiums while new entrants offer ground-floor exposure. FENRIR's Nordic expertise enables early identification of quality regional operators before broader market recognition.

Risk Assessment & Mitigation

Principal Investment Risks

Regulatory Evolution:
While Norway and Sweden maintain supportive frameworks, evolving regulations could impact operational flexibility. FENRIR monitors proposed restrictions on energy-intensive operations and potential changes to digital asset taxation.

Market Volatility:
DAT valuations exhibit high correlation to underlying digital asset prices, requiring sophisticated risk management and position sizing discipline. Standard Chartered analysis indicates 50% of corporate treasuries risk going underwater if Bitcoin falls below $90,000.

Competition Intensification:
Rapid industry growth may compress excess returns as competition increases. FENRIR emphasizes early-stage positioning and operational excellence to maintain competitive advantages.

FENRIR's Strategic Advantages

Nordic Expertise:
Deep understanding of Scandinavian regulatory frameworks, investor preferences, and market dynamics enables superior deal sourcing and risk assessment relative to global competitors.

Institutional Quality:
Rigorous due diligence processes, proven risk management frameworks, and established relationships with Nordic financial institutions provide competitive advantages in operator selection and monitoring.

ESG Integration:
Emphasis on sustainable digital asset operations aligns with Nordic environmental leadership and institutional investor requirements, supporting long-term value creation and stakeholder alignment.

12-Month Investment Strategy

Tactical Positioning

Entry Strategy:
Utilize market volatility and regulatory clarity timing for optimal position building, targeting companies trading at or below 1.2x NAV with strong management teams and clear value creation strategies.

Catalyst Timeline:

Q3 2025: MiCA implementation providing regulatory certainty
Q4 2025: Institutional adoption acceleration through ETF flows
2026: Nordic DAT company launches and IPO opportunities

Value Realization:
Target 25-40% annual returns through NAV premium capture, operational leverage, and multiple expansion as institutional adoption accelerates and regulatory frameworks mature.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

The Digital Asset Treasury sector represents a structural shift in corporate finance and investment management, offering sophisticated investors asymmetric risk-reward characteristics through a rapidly maturing asset class. Our Nordic expertise, combined with disciplined operator selection and comprehensive risk management, positions FENRIR to capture superior returns while maintaining downside protection.

The convergence of regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and operational innovation creates compelling opportunities for patient capital willing to navigate short-term volatility for long-term value creation. FENRIR's strategy emphasizes quality operators with proven management teams and sustainable competitive advantages in this emerging investment category.

Ready to access the Digital Asset Treasury opportunity with Nordic expertise and institutional-grade risk management? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Nordic Digital Asset Treasury Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #DigitalAssetTreasury #CryptocurrencyInvesting #NordicExpertise #NAVArbitrage #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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30th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Enhanced Investment Platform: Advanced Basket Solutions and Factor Analytics for Strategic Alpha Generation

Revolutionary Tools for Sophisticated Capital Allocation

FENRIR is pleased to introduce our enhanced investment platform, leveraging cutting-edge basket solutions and advanced factor analytics to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns for our sophisticated investor base. Our commitment to innovation drives continuous evolution of our product offering, ensuring optimal exposure capture across global markets while maintaining our Nordic excellence foundation.

These developments represent a quantum leap in our ability to construct targeted exposures, manage portfolio risks, and capitalize on market inefficiencies through institutional-grade tools previously available only to the largest investment platforms.

1. Wrapper Evolution: Precision Exposure Management

X7 Index: Beyond Magnificent 7 Concentration Risk

Strategic Implementation:
FENRIR now provides exclusive access to the US 500 Excluding Magnificent 7 Index, a groundbreaking instrument that removes concentration risk from the seven largest US technology companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) while maintaining S&P 500 methodology.

Investment Rationale:

Diversification Benefits: Eliminates single-stock concentration while preserving broad US equity exposure
Valuation Arbitrage: Access to undervalued segments of the S&P 500 trading at attractive multiples versus mega-cap technology
Risk Management: Reduces portfolio beta to technology cycles while maintaining US market participation

FENRIR's Application:
This instrument perfectly complements our Nordic-focused strategies by providing diversified US exposure without technology concentration risk, particularly valuable during periods of factor rotation and style divergence.

Tradable Pair Baskets: Operational Excellence

Enhanced Execution:
Our platform now enables sophisticated long/short pair trades as single line items with daily rebalancing to maintain notional neutrality. This advancement eliminates execution complexity while preserving precise factor exposure.

Strategic Value:

Cost Efficiency: Reduced transaction costs through single-instrument execution
Risk Control: Daily rebalancing eliminates drift and maintains target exposures
Capital Efficiency: Optimized collateral usage through integrated pair positioning

Options on Baskets: Asymmetric Risk Management

Platform Capabilities:

Real-Time Greeks: Delta, Gamma, Vega tracking through advanced analytics
Structured Solutions: Call spreads, put spreads, and custom option strategies
Intraday Monitoring: Live price and delta updates for active risk management

FENRIR's Integration:
These tools enhance our ability to provide downside protection while maintaining upside participation in our core Nordic and European strategies, particularly valuable during volatile market conditions.

2. Advanced Factor Analytics: Precision Alpha Generation

Sector Factor Solutions

Methodology Enhancement:
FENRIR's factor implementation now leverages Barra and Wolfe optimization within specific sectors, providing targeted factor exposure while controlling for unintended risks such as growth or residual volatility.

Key Insights:
Sector-specific factor performance demonstrates significant divergence—financial sector momentum severely underperformed broad momentum strategies, highlighting the importance of sector-aware factor implementation in portfolio construction.

Strategic Application:

Quality Bias: Nordic banking factors with enhanced risk controls
Value Implementation: European industrial value with sector-neutral construction
Momentum Capture: Technology momentum with growth factor hedging

European Barra Indices: Continental Alpha

Advanced Framework:
Utilizing Barra's Europe Long Term Equity Factor Model, our European factor baskets optimize maximum factor exposure while limiting sector, industry, and country biases.

FENRIR's Advantage:
These tools directly support our European investment strategies, providing precise factor exposure across continental markets while maintaining our quality bias and ESG integration requirements.

Japanese Factor Baskets: Asia-Pacific Expansion

Medium-Term Focus:
Constructed using JPE4, Barra's Japan market equity model, these baskets provide optimized factor exposure for medium-term investment horizons.

Portfolio Integration:
Japanese factor exposure complements our global diversification strategy while maintaining factor purity and risk control essential for institutional portfolio management.

3. Advanced Positioning Analytics: Market Intelligence

S3 Positioning Data Integration

Real-Time Intelligence:
FENRIR's platform now provides instant access to aggregate long-short crowding ratios, enabling sophisticated positioning analysis across our investment universe.

Strategic Value:

Contrarian Indicators: Identify overcrowded trades for tactical positioning
Risk Management: Monitor factor exposure relative to market positioning
Alpha Generation: Capitalize on positioning-driven inefficiencies

Crowding Analytics: Tactical Advantage

Market Navigation:
Our enhanced monitoring capabilities provide early warning systems for crowding episodes, enabling proactive portfolio adjustments and risk mitigation.

FENRIR's Application:
These tools proved invaluable during the March crowding unwind, allowing our investment team to position defensively while maintaining strategic exposures to our core Nordic and European themes.

Strategic Implementation Framework

Portfolio Construction Enhancement

Integrated Approach:
FENRIR's enhanced platform enables sophisticated multi-dimensional portfolio construction combining:

Geographic Exposure: Nordic core with European and global diversification
Factor Positioning: Quality, value, and momentum with sector-aware implementation
Risk Management: Advanced derivatives and positioning analytics

Client Benefits

Operational Excellence:

Reduced Complexity: Single-instrument access to sophisticated strategies
Enhanced Precision: Factor-pure exposure with controlled unintended risks
Superior Analytics: Real-time positioning and risk monitoring

Strategic Advantages:

Alpha Generation: Access to inefficiencies through advanced factor analytics
Risk Control: Sophisticated hedging and positioning tools
Transparency: Enhanced reporting and performance attribution

FENRIR's Competitive Edge

Nordic Excellence Foundation:
Our deep Nordic market expertise, combined with these advanced analytical tools, creates unmatched ability to identify and capture alpha opportunities across Scandinavian and broader European markets.

Institutional Quality:
These platform enhancements position FENRIR at the forefront of alternative investment management, providing institutional-grade tools with boutique attention to our sophisticated investor base.

Innovation Leadership:
Our commitment to technological advancement ensures continuous evolution of our investment capabilities, maintaining our competitive edge in dynamic global markets.

Ready to leverage advanced factor analytics and basket solutions for superior risk-adjusted returns? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Enhanced Investment Platform.

#AlternativeInvestments #FactorInvesting #BasketSolutions #RiskManagement #NordicExcellence #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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The Quantum Pioneer: Olav Henrik Trent's Unconventional Journey to Financial Excellence

Olav Henrik Trent's path to becoming one of Norway's most innovative fund managers reads like a modern adventure novel—a tale spanning continents, elite military training, spectacular wins and devastating losses, and ultimately, the application of quantum physics principles to financial markets. At an age when most are just beginning their careers, Trent has already established himself as a distinctive voice in Norwegian finance, managing billions and challenging conventional investment wisdom with his unique "controlled chaos theory" approach.

From Oslo to Johannesburg: An Unconventional Childhood

Born in Oslo, Trent's formative years were marked by extraordinary transitions that would shape his adaptable, globally-minded perspective. At the tender age of five, he was sent to South African boarding schools—a move that would expose him to diverse cultures and environments far from his Norwegian homeland. This early separation from family and familiar surroundings instilled in him a resilience and independence that would prove invaluable in his later financial career.

The young Trent spent six years in South Africa before returning to Ullern, Oslo at age 10 for what was supposed to be a brief summer vacation. In a decision that speaks to his early independence of thought, he chose to remain in Norway, despite facing the considerable challenge of relearning Norwegian from scratch. This linguistic and cultural readjustment demonstrated an early capacity for adaptation that would become a hallmark of his professional life.

Military Excellence: The Making of a Strategic Mind

After completing high school with above-average grades, Trent embarked on what would become a defining chapter of his youth—military service with the Norwegian Navy SEALs (Marinejegerkommandoen) in Bergen in 2011. This elite unit, known for its rigorous selection and training process, operates from bases in Bergen and northern Norway, conducting maritime special operations that require exceptional physical and mental fortitude.

Trent's performance during this period was exceptional, achieving "over-expectation" results in what is considered one of the world's most challenging military training programs. The Marinejegerkommandoen training encompasses everything from underwater operations to counter-terrorism, demanding not only physical excellence but also strategic thinking and the ability to operate under extreme pressure. These skills—rapid decision-making, risk assessment, and maintaining composure in volatile situations—would later prove directly applicable to the high-stakes world of financial markets.

Academic Foundation: Business School and Early Entrepreneurship

Following his military service, Trent faced a crossroads. While international business school opportunities beckoned, he made the strategic decision to remain in Oslo to both assist with family business and pursue his education at BI Norwegian Business School, where he studied Business Administration. BI, ranked among Europe's top 10 finance faculties and holding the prestigious Triple Crown accreditation, provided Trent with a solid theoretical foundation in finance and economics.

However, Trent's education extended far beyond the classroom. During his studies, he received an invitation that would provide his first taste of business success: joining in the building of Joe & The Juice Norway at Aker Brygge. This Norwegian expansion of the Danish juice and coffee concept proved highly successful, giving Trent early exposure to rapid business growth, franchise operations, and the challenges of scaling a consumer brand.

The Stockbroker Interlude: A Brief but Formative Experience

After completing his exams, Trent initially joined the family business before taking a position as a stockbroker at a prominent Norwegian securities firm. However, this conventional path proved unsatisfying. In a move that would characterize his willingness to forge his own path, he left the position "relatively fast" to pursue what would become both his greatest early triumph and his most costly lesson.

Oil Trading: Fortune and Misfortune

Armed with his own funds and some family money, Trent plunged into the volatile world of oil trading while traveling internationally. This period exemplified both his appetite for risk and his capacity for learning from dramatic setbacks. His own reflection on this time reveals both the scale of his ambition and the severity of his losses: "I made what for me at the time was a fortune every week, and I think I lost it all in the blink of an eye. In hindsight it was among the costliest and brutal lessons learned alone at that age".

This experience, while financially devastating, provided invaluable insights into market volatility, risk management, and the psychological demands of trading. The lessons learned during this period would inform his later, more sophisticated approach to portfolio management and risk assessment.

The Hedge Fund Triumph: Bloomberg's Number One

Undeterred by his early setbacks, Trent channeled his hard-won experience into founding a Norwegian licensed hedge fund that would achieve remarkable success. The fund delivered exceptional performance, ranking first among Bloomberg's hedge funds domiciled in Norway—a significant achievement in a country known for its sophisticated financial sector. With a total return of 37.95% over one year and a standard deviation of just 11.55%, Trent demonstrated his ability to generate high returns while effectively managing risk.

This success established Trent as one of Norway's youngest fund managers and brought him to the attention of the Norwegian financial elite. His achievement was particularly notable given Norway's sophisticated investment landscape, which includes the world's largest sovereign wealth fund (NBIM) and a highly educated financial community.

However, personal tragedy would again reshape Trent's trajectory. Following the loss of close family members, he made the difficult decision to wind down the fund's operations, marking another significant turning point in his career.

Financial Journalism: Sharing Market Insights

In the aftermath of this personal and professional transition, Trent pivoted to financial journalism, becoming a regular contributor to Norway's most prestigious financial publications, Dagens Næringsliv and Finansavisen. His daily columns focusing on global interest rates allowed him to share insights gathered through consultations with senior economists, establishing him as a respected voice in financial commentary.

This journalistic period served multiple purposes: it maintained his connection to financial markets, built his public profile, and allowed him to refine his analytical skills while developing a broader perspective on global economic trends. His early promise as a market commentator was evident even during his high school years, when he achieved a 64.9% return in a student stock-picking competition, demonstrating his long-standing ability to identify market opportunities.

The Quantum Philosophy: Where Physics Meets Finance

Central to Trent's current investment approach is his unique philosophy that applies quantum mechanics principles to market dynamics. This sophisticated framework, which he describes as "controlled chaos theory applied to market dynamics," sets him apart from conventional fund managers.

Trent's quantum-inspired approach encompasses several key principles:

Probabilistic Positioning: Just as quantum mechanics deals with probabilities rather than certainties, Trent positions himself "along the direction of the most probable market move" rather than attempting to predict exact outcomes. This approach acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in financial markets while seeking to capture the most likely scenarios.

Market Reflexivity: Drawing parallels to quantum mechanics, where observing a particle affects its behavior, Trent recognizes that market interactions change the market itself. As he explains, "there are no objective realities in markets that are independent of whoever interacts with it".

Diversified Model Portfolio: Rather than relying on a single "correct" pricing model, Trent employs "a collection of simple, sufficiently diverse models" to extract probabilities and position accordingly. This approach mirrors quantum mechanics' use of multiple possible states to describe reality.

Balanced Strategy Exposure: Recognizing that market rules constantly change, unlike fixed games such as chess, Trent maintains "balanced exposure across different strategies instead of trying to time the optimal strategy".

TRENT and FENRIR: Building a Financial Empire

Today, Trent serves as founder, CEO, and fund manager of TRENT AS, a registered Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM) regulated by the Norwegian Financial Supervisory Authority. TRENT AS operates as the management company for FENRIR AS, a comprehensive private equity, ventures, and credit fund that represents the culmination of Trent's investment philosophy and experience.

FENRIR, named after the wolf of Norse mythology, embodies Trent's "hunger for growth" and ability to "shake up the status quo". The fund maintains an investment capacity of up to 5 billion Norwegian kroner, positioning it as both nimble enough to seize opportunities quickly and substantial enough to make meaningful impact.

The fund's investment approach spans multiple strategies and asset classes:

Private Equity and Venture Capital: Focusing on Norwegian companies with technological innovation and growth potential

Credit Investments: Targeting opportunities across the credit spectrum

Public Markets: Maintaining exposure to listed securities for liquidity and diversification

Real Estate and Infrastructure: Including renewable energy projects and premium real estate

Global Investment Vision: SpaceX, Binance, and Beyond

Trent's investment acumen extends to some of the world's most innovative companies. His portfolio includes significant positions in SpaceX, as reported by Bloomberg, reflecting his forward-thinking approach to space technology and his willingness to invest in transformative industries. When asked about his SpaceX investment, Trent explained: "For me, it's just being able to be a part of it. We would be the only Norwegian company involved in the space program".

His portfolio also includes investments in Binance, one of the world's leading cryptocurrency exchanges, as noted by the Wall Street Journal. These investments demonstrate Trent's ability to identify and access cutting-edge opportunities that align with his vision of future technological and financial evolution.

FENRIR's current holdings showcase this global perspective, featuring high-potential firms such as Epic Games (gaming industry leader), Anthropic (artificial intelligence pioneer), and various Norwegian innovation companies. This blend of international technology leaders and Norwegian innovation reflects Trent's commitment to both global opportunities and domestic market development.

Investment Process and Risk Management

TRENT AS employs a sophisticated multi-strategy approach that incorporates several key elements:

Comprehensive Analysis Framework:

Detailed company analysis

Market trend evaluation

Alternative data source utilization

Macroeconomic, regulatory, and technological factor assessment

Advanced Risk Management: The fund employs customized basket options through Goldman Sachs as their prime broker, using "customized baskets of public equities to mirror our private portfolio's risk profile". This allows hedging against broader market or sector-specific risks without requiring perfect one-to-one proxies.

Dynamic Portfolio Management: Trent emphasizes the importance of regularly reassessing and adjusting option portfolios, "shifting between different strikes, expirations, and option types as market conditions evolve".

Personal Philosophy and Leadership Style

Despite his significant achievements, Trent maintains a hands-on approach, working closely with portfolio managers, investment analysts, and C-level executives to construct portfolios and manage risk. His leadership philosophy emphasizes that "Alpha is made in Private Markets, unless you 'Magnificent 7'", reflecting his belief that true value creation requires deeper engagement than public market investing.

Trent's perspective on the Norwegian market is particularly insightful: "Norway's market is more fragmented, offering us the chance to uncover hidden gems that larger funds might overlook". This local market expertise, combined with his global investment perspective, creates unique opportunities for value creation.

The Next Chapter: Shaping Norwegian Finance

As Trent continues to build FENRIR, his impact extends beyond pure financial returns. His quantum-inspired investment philosophy and unconventional background bring fresh perspectives to Norwegian finance, challenging traditional approaches while delivering strong performance for investors.

His commitment to Norwegian innovation is evident in FENRIR's focus on domestic companies across technology, cleantech, and infrastructure sectors. By providing capital, strategic guidance, and operational support to Norwegian businesses, Trent contributes to the country's economic diversification beyond its traditional oil and gas base.

The success of his approach—from his early Bloomberg-ranking hedge fund to his current management of FENRIR—demonstrates that unconventional thinking, rigorous analysis, and adaptive strategies can generate exceptional results even in sophisticated markets. As financial markets continue to evolve and face new challenges, Trent's blend of quantum-inspired philosophy, global perspective, and Norwegian market expertise positions him as a unique voice in the next generation of financial leadership.

Olav Henrik Trent's biography illustrates how diverse experiences—from South African boarding schools to Norwegian special forces training, from devastating trading losses to Bloomberg-ranking success—can forge an exceptional investor and entrepreneur. His story continues to unfold as he applies his unique perspective to building one of Norway's most innovative investment platforms, proving that the intersection of unconventional thinking and rigorous methodology can reshape traditional finance.

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28th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Stolt-Nielsen (SNI.OL) Strategic Analysis: Navigating Chemical Logistics Leadership Through Market Volatility

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Stolt-Nielsen Limited presents a compelling asymmetric opportunity as the global leader in chemical tanker logistics faces near-term headwinds while maintaining structural competitive advantages across its diversified portfolio. Trading at NOK 266 with ABG Sundal Collier's NOK 366 target price representing 38% upside potential, FENRIR identifies exceptional value in this integrated chemicals transportation and storage platform during a critical market inflection point.

Recent market dynamics show chemical tanker rates sliding 2-5% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, yet fundamental supply constraints and geopolitical trade route disruptions continue supporting tonne-mile demand. The company's defensive characteristics through its terminal network, tank container operations, and aquaculture division provide portfolio stability while maintaining exposure to the anticipated chemical tanker recovery cycle.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Stolt Tankers: Quality Fleet Through Commodity Volatility

Current Market Dynamics:
Chemical tanker spot rates have declined almost 40% year-over-year, with deepSea chemical index at USD 27,620 per operating day compared to the 2018-2022 average of USD 19,825. However, FENRIR emphasizes the structural factors supporting medium-term recovery, including Red Sea shipping disruptions adding approximately 1.7% to demand and port congestion remaining elevated at 46.2%.

Competitive Positioning:
Stolt Tankers operates the world's largest fleet of parcel chemical tankers with 158 vessels, providing unmatched scale advantages and customer relationship depth. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio has increased to 20.9% from 16.5% at year-start, yet limited newbuild ordering in April and May suggests supply discipline returning.

Value Proposition:
Despite near-term rate weakness, the company's integrated logistics solutions benefit customers during geopolitical uncertainty, with chemical production expected to grow moderately at 1.9% annually. The fleet's modern specification and coating technology provides premium positioning for specialized chemical transportation requirements.

2. Stolthaven Terminals: Defensive Infrastructure with Margin Expansion

Operational Excellence:
Terminal utilization improved to 91.9% in Q1 2025 with average marketable capacity of 1.75 million cubic meters globally. The company expects continued utilization improvement throughout 2025 while maintaining disciplined cost control.

Strategic Value:
The global terminal portfolio provides natural hedge against shipping market volatility, with recurring revenue streams from storage contracts and value-added services. Recent investments of USD 200 million in US terminals since 2019, with an additional USD 200 million planned, demonstrate commitment to expanding in high-margin markets.

3. Stolt Tank Containers: Supply Chain Resilience Leadership

Market Position:
Operating 51,011 tank containers globally, Stolt Tank Containers benefits from strengthening demand in key geographies despite market instability from geopolitical factors. The cancellation of International Longshoremen's Association strike action in January 2025 eased volatility, supporting both spot rates and shipment volumes.

ESG Integration:
The division achieved 39.5% reduction in Scope 2 emissions in 2022 through renewable energy adoption, including wind energy in Netherlands operations and solar installations in Taiwan and India. The sustainability reporting tool allows customers to monitor cargo carbon footprints, supporting their Scope 3 emission reduction targets.

4. Stolt Sea Farm: Premium Aquaculture Growth Engine

Financial Performance:
Stolt Sea Farm delivered exceptional 2024 results with USD 127 million operating revenue and USD 29 million operating profit, driven by record sales of 6,861 tonnes turbot and 1,806 tonnes sole. Prices increased 14.3% for turbot and 8.8% for sole, reflecting strong market demand for premium farmed fish.

Strategic Expansion:
The company targets annual production capacity of 23,000 tonnes by 2035, supported by substantial infrastructure investments including expansion of the Cervo hatchery—recognized as the world's largest flatfish hatchery—and construction of new RAS production facilities in Portugal.

Valuation Framework & Strategic Allocation

Financial Architecture Analysis

Earnings Trajectory:
ABG Sundal Collier estimates 2025 EPS of USD 6.85 declining from USD 7.38 in 2024, reflecting near-term tanker market normalization before recovery. Net profit forecasts of USD 367 million (2025) and USD 376 million (2026) represent 7% and 47% premiums versus consensus expectations.

Capital Returns Program:
The company maintains an exceptional 15.3% dividend yield for 2025-2027, supported by strong free cash flow generation of 28.7% (2025) expanding to 37.8% (2027). The board recommended final 2024 dividend of USD 1.25 per share, bringing total 2024 distribution to USD 2.50.

Balance Sheet Strength:
Net debt-to-EBITDA increased to 2.8x in Q1 2025 following strategic acquisitions of Avenir LNG Limited and Hassel Shipping, yet remains within conservative leverage parameters. The company completed USD 75 million in step-up acquisition gains during Q1, enhancing future earnings potential.

Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation

Component Analysis:
ABG Sundal Collier's NOK 366 target price derives from 25% discount to estimated one-year forward sum-of-the-parts valuation of NOK 529 per share, combined with 12% yield requirement on average 2025-2026 dividend expectations. Current book values yield SOTP of NOK 425 per share, while broker quotes suggest NOK 479 per share current SOTP.

Multiple Analysis:
Trading at 3.8x 2025 P/E and 4.8x EV/EBITDA, Stolt-Nielsen offers compelling value relative to chemical transportation peers, particularly considering the integrated terminal and aquaculture diversification benefits.

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Market Cyclicality:
Chemical tanker markets face continued pressure from orderbook deliveries through 2025-2027, with approximately 85 product-capable MRs scheduled for delivery in 2025. However, limited scrapping activity and aging global fleet provide supply-side support.

Geopolitical Volatility:
Red Sea shipping disruptions continue impacting 15% of global ocean carrier traffic, forcing longer routing around Cape of Good Hope and adding 10 days to month of travel time. While creating operational challenges, these disruptions also support tonne-mile demand and freight rates.

Regulatory Transition:
Enhanced environmental regulations drive fleet renewal requirements, creating both compliance costs and competitive advantages for modern, efficient vessels. Stolt-Nielsen's sustainability leadership positions the company favorably for regulatory transitions.

FENRIR's Risk Management Framework

Position Sizing:
Maximum 4% single-name exposure within diversified shipping and logistics allocation, recognizing both cyclical volatility and defensive terminal characteristics.

Hedging Strategies:
Currency derivatives for USD/NOK exposure management, given significant US dollar revenue streams across all business segments.

Catalyst Monitoring:
Q2 2025 earnings (July 3), chemical tanker rate developments, and terminal utilization trends provide key performance indicators.

ESG Leadership & Sustainability Integration

Environmental Commitments

Decarbonization Targets:
Stolt Tankers targets 50% carbon intensity reduction by 2030 (relative to 2008 levels), with at least one carbon-neutral ship by 2030 and carbon-neutral business operations by 2050. Stolthaven Terminals aims for carbon-neutral primary activities by 2040.

Innovation Leadership:
The company explores alternative fuels including LNG and methanol, while investing in vessel efficiency technologies and operational optimization. Tank Containers division achieved 50% renewable energy consumption target at wholly-owned depots.

Social Impact & Governance

Industry Leadership:
Stolt-Nielsen's 50-year operating history and global scale provide unique competitive moats, while strong governance frameworks support sustainable value creation. The company's customer-centric approach during supply chain disruptions demonstrates relationship value beyond commodity transportation.

FENRIR's 12-Month Investment Strategy

Implementation Framework

Entry Strategy:
Accumulate positions utilizing Q2 earnings volatility and chemical tanker market headlines, targeting support levels around NOK 250-260 for optimal risk-reward.

Catalyst Timeline:

July 3, 2025: Q2 earnings presentation providing guidance clarity
Q3 2025: Chemical tanker rate stabilization signals
Q4 2025: Terminal utilization improvement and Sea Farm expansion progress

Value Realization:
The combination of defensive income characteristics (15.3% dividend yield), terminal asset appreciation, and eventual chemical tanker cycle recovery provides multiple value creation pathways.

Strategic Conviction

Stolt-Nielsen represents sophisticated exposure to global chemical logistics leadership at compelling valuations, combining defensive terminal infrastructure with operational leverage to shipping market recovery. The company's diversified platform provides unique exposure to chemical transportation, storage, and premium aquaculture markets while maintaining strict ESG leadership standards.

FENRIR's conviction centers on the asymmetric risk-reward profile offered by this market-leading platform trading at cyclically depressed valuations, supported by exceptional dividend yields and balance sheet flexibility for strategic growth investments.

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Ready to access chemical logistics leadership with defensive characteristics and premium yield? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Maritime Infrastructure Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #ChemicalLogistics #MaritimeInfrastructure #DividendYield #ESGLeadership #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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26th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Subsea Excellence Strategy: Navigating Offshore Vessel Value at Cycle Inflection

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

The global subsea support vessel market presents compelling asymmetric opportunities as commodity cycles mature and supply constraints create structural advantages for quality operators. FENRIR identifies exceptional value in Norway's Solstad complex—comprising both Solstad Offshore and Solstad Maritime—where defensive cash generation, operational excellence, and contrarian positioning converge to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns for sophisticated capital allocation.

Recent market dynamics show 3% fewer active CSVs year-to-date versus 2024, while orderbook discipline at 11% of fleet capacity provides supply-side tailwinds through 2026-27. FENRIR's analysis reveals compelling entry points across both entities, with combined enterprise values trading at significant discounts to replacement cost and normalized cash generation potential.

Dual-Platform Investment Framework

1. Solstad Offshore (SOFF.OL): Deep Value & Technical Momentum

Fundamental Thesis:

BUY Rating, NOK 60 Target: 17% upside potential driven by defensive contract coverage and premier asset quality.
Stub Value Optimization: Current enterprise value implies a 1.5x 2026e EV/EBITDA on quality subsea assets, representing deep value.
Financial Architecture: Over 75% of EBITDA is secured through 2026, supporting a 75% FCF yield on the current stub value and rapid deleveraging.
Catalyst Integration: Recent Brazilian contract awards and a Q1 2025 profit turnaround (NOK 24.0m net income vs. NOK 36.3m loss in Q1 2024) provide strong fundamental support.

Technical Framework & Entry Strategy:

Primary Trend: SOFF trades within a robust ascending channel, signaling sustained investor optimism. The annualized growth rate is 76%.
Key Patterns: A breakout above the NOK 36.97 rectangle formation targets NOK 42.59+. An developing inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern signals further upside on a break of NOK 41.32.
Risk Indicators: However, a negative volume balance and a falling RSI trend suggest tactical caution is warranted, signaling potential short-term weakness despite the bullish price structure.
Actionable Entry:
- Primary Entry Zone: NOK 37.60–39.50, utilizing support for risk management.
- Breakout Target: Enter or add on a volume-confirmed break of NOK 41.32.
- Stop-Loss Discipline: The trend floor at NOK 37.37 provides a clear exit level (-5.4% max downside).

2. Solstad Maritime: Broader Market Leadership

Strategic Assessment:

NEUTRAL Rating, NOK 26 Target: Fair value reflecting 180% EBITDA growth since the 2022 cycle bottom.
Operational Scale: A 32-vessel fleet, including 22 high-spec CSVs, provides diversified global subsea exposure.
Value Drivers: Revenue is projected to expand to USD 709m by 2026e as legacy contracts roll off to market rates, supporting a superior 65% FCF conversion and 14% dividend yields.

Market Dynamics & Risk Management

Supply-Demand Rebalancing:

Orderbook Discipline: Only 27 relevant newbuilds (11% of fleet) are on order, creating supply constraints through 2026-27.
Demand Architecture: Record backlogs at major subsea contractors and a 30% decade-long growth in the installed subsea tree base ensure robust demand for construction and IMR services.
Energy Transition: Offshore wind projects contribute 24% of Maritime's EBITDA, offering diversification.

Risk Assessment & Mitigation:

Principal Risks: Commodity sensitivity (Brent forecast at $70-$71/bbl for 2025-26), potential dayrate compression in 2026-27, and SOFF’s single-asset concentration.
FENRIR's Framework: Maximum 4% combined exposure to the Solstad complex. Utilize currency and commodity derivatives for hedging. Monitor contract coverage and utilization quarterly.

Valuation Framework & Strategic Allocation

Comparative Analysis

Strategic Implementation:

Portfolio Construction: 60% Solstad Offshore for its higher-conviction deep value and contract visibility; 40% Solstad Maritime for quality exposure to broader market leadership.
Tactical Timing: Build positions during Q2 earnings volatility and CSV market headlines. Monitor contract awards and Petrobras tenders as near-term catalysts.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

The Solstad complex offers sophisticated exposure to Norwegian subsea excellence at compelling valuations, combining defensive cash flows with operational leverage to the market recovery. The combination of Solstad Offshore's deep value characteristics and Solstad Maritime's operational scale creates a diversified, risk-managed entry into the subsea market's structural inflection point.

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Ready to access Norwegian subsea leadership with sophisticated risk management and cycle-aware positioning? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Subsea Excellence Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #NorwegianSubsea #OffshoreVessels #CyclicalInvesting #MaritimeInfrastructure #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

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26th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Norwegian Banking Strategy: Capital Relief, Margin Dynamics, and Defensive Yield Opportunities

Market Context & Strategic Positioning
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Norwegian banking presents a compelling investment landscape as the sector navigates a critical inflection point, with interest rate cuts creating margin headwinds while capital relief measures unlock significant value for sophisticated investors. Following the Norwegian central bank's 25bps rate reduction in June and expectations for two additional cuts in 2025, FENRIR identifies asymmetric opportunities across Nordic banking leaders trading at undemanding valuations despite superior profitability metrics.

The sector's transformation is underscored by Basel IV implementation (CRR3) providing substantial capital relief for standard banks, while IRB institutions face regulatory headwinds from raised mortgage risk-weight floors. This regulatory divergence creates distinct alpha generation opportunities for disciplined capital allocation, particularly as the sector maintains a 15-13% median ROE outlook versus historical 12% averages.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Interest Rate Environment: Tactical Positioning Amid Margin Pressure

Rate Cut Trajectory:

Policy Normalization: Norwegian central bank expects key policy rate decline to 3.4% by end-2026, with DNB Carnegie forecasting 3.75% through 2028
NII Resilience: Despite margin pressure, sector expects 1.9% Q/Q NII growth in Q2 supported by one additional interest day and 7.5bps lower NIBOR funding costs
Historical Context: Previous rate cycles show NIMs declining 15% during rapid cuts (2020) versus gradual adjustment during 2014-2016 cycle

Strategic Assessment:
Norwegian banks' asset-heavy funding structures provide defensive characteristics during rate normalization, with estimated 11% average EPS sensitivity to 100bps rate cuts. FENRIR emphasizes institutions with high deposit-to-lending ratios and diversified income streams positioned to outperform during margin compression periods.

2. Capital Relief Revolution: Standard Banks vs. IRB Divergence

Basel IV Implementation Benefits:

Standard Bank Advantage: CRR3 provides 1-4.4 percentage points CET1 ratio relief, with mortgage risk weights reduced from 35% to 20% for LTV below 55%
Commercial Real Estate: CRE loans below 55% LTV now carry 60% risk weight versus previous 100% national regulation
Capital Distribution Potential: Standard banks (SPOG, ROGS, HELG) positioned for 99% payout ratios with 3-12% additional dividend yields

IRB Bank Challenges:
From July 2025, mortgage risk-weight floors increase from 20% to 25%, with CRE floors rising from 35% to 45%, creating 0.4-1.5 percentage point CET1 headwinds for larger institutions 1. This regulatory bifurcation favors nimble regional operators over traditional market leaders.

3. FENRIR's Bank-by-Bank Strategic Analysis

Top Conviction Plays:

SpareBank 1 SMN (MING) - BUY, NOK 210 Target:

Investment Thesis: Strong Q2 ROE expectation of 15.5% despite margin pressure, with 0.2 percentage point CRR3 tailwind providing 2% capital requirement buffer
Valuation Appeal: 2026e P/E of 10.8x represents compelling entry point for quality regional franchise
Risk-Reward: 11% upside potential with defensive dividend characteristics

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank (SB1NO) - HOLD, NOK 180 Target:

Operational Excellence: High activity supporting Q2e ROE of 12.7% with 2.1% Q/Q NII growth despite competitive pressures
Capital Dynamics: Meaningful distribution potential despite upcoming regulatory changes, targeting 60% payout ratios for 2025-27e

SpareBank 1 Østlandet (SPOL) - HOLD, NOK 190 Target:

Capital Strength: Well-capitalized profile with 120bps Q/Q CET1 improvement from CRR3 implementation
Distribution Capacity: Ample capital position supports 70-75% payout ratios despite Q3 mortgage risk-weight increases

4. Sector Fundamentals: Asset Quality and Credit Dynamics

Lending Growth Recovery:
Norwegian lending demonstrates resilient momentum with 4.0% year-over-year total growth, while household lending maintains robust 4.1% expansion 1. Reduced equity ratio requirements from 15% to 10% for mortgages provide additional tailwinds for retail segment expansion.

Credit Quality Stability:

Conservative Regulations: Norwegian mortgage regulations maintain 90% maximum LTV and 5x debt-to-income ratios, supporting asset quality resilience
CRE Sector Improvement: Enhanced equity ratios among commercial real estate companies provide downside protection
Loan Loss Outlook: Moderate 12bp provisions expected across 2025-2027 horizon, supported by sound macroeconomic fundamentals

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Construction

Principal Investment Risks

Margin Compression Acceleration:
Faster-than-expected rate cuts combined with intensified competition could compress margins beyond current forecasts, particularly affecting high-NII institutions 1. FENRIR monitors deposit rate migration and mortgage pricing dynamics for early warning signals.

Regulatory Implementation Challenges:
Customer dividend removal proposals for savings banks (SPOL, SBNOR, ROGS) could eliminate tax benefits worth 0.5-0.9 percentage points of ROE impact 1. Additionally, raised mortgage risk-weight floors may constrain IRB bank capital generation more severely than anticipated.

Cost Inflation Persistence:
Enhanced pressure from specialized recruitment, digitalization investments, and regulatory compliance could offset revenue growth, particularly given reduced branch closure potential. SpareBank 1 Alliance litigation settlement adds NOK 260m one-off costs and NOK 100m annual IT expense increases.

FENRIR's Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Allocation Framework:

40% Standard Banks: SPOG, ROGS, HELG for capital relief upside and distribution potential
35% Quality Regional: MING, SB1NO for operational excellence and market positioning
25% Selective IRB: DNB, SPOL for defensive characteristics and dividend sustainability

Position Sizing & Risk Management:

Individual Limits: Maximum 4% single-name exposure with sector ceiling of 15%
Currency Hedging: NOK exposure management against EUR/USD volatility
Catalyst Monitoring: Q2 earnings (July), regulatory decisions, and merger activity

Tactical Entry Strategy:
Utilize Norwegian central bank policy announcements and regulatory implementation periods for position building, targeting support levels during headline-driven volatility while maintaining conviction in sector fundamentals.

Valuation Framework & Return Expectations

Sector Metrics & Historical Context

Current Valuations:
The sector trades at 12.3x average 2026e P/E, representing fair value relative to 15-13% ROE projections and superior capital generation characteristics. Combined dividend and buyback yields averaging 20% across coverage universe provide attractive income profiles during rate transition.

Total Return Potential:

Income Component: 8-12% dividend yields with 80-85% average payout ratios
Capital Appreciation: 10-15% revaluation potential as regulatory clarity emerges
Currency Benefit: NOK strength supporting international investor returns

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Norwegian banking represents a sophisticated opportunity to capture defensive yield characteristics while positioning for regulatory-driven alpha generation. The sector's unique combination of capital relief tailwinds, conservative underwriting standards, and enhanced profitability focus creates asymmetric risk-reward profiles for patient capital.

Our emphasis on standard banks benefiting from Basel IV implementation, combined with selective exposure to quality regional franchises, positions portfolios to outperform during the interest rate normalization cycle. The sector's undemanding 12.3x 2026e P/E valuation, supported by 20% average distribution yields, provides compelling entry points for sophisticated investors seeking Nordic financial exposure.

Implementation Priorities:

Overweight: Standard banks with capital relief upside (SPOG, ROGS, HELG)
Core Holdings: Quality regional leaders with operational excellence (MING, SB1NO)
Tactical Exposure: Selective IRB banks with defensive characteristics and dividend sustainability

Ready to capitalize on Norwegian banking's regulatory transformation with sophisticated risk management and sector expertise? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Nordic Banking Strategy.

#NordicBanking #CapitalRelief #InterestRates #DividendYield #AlternativeInvestments #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

25th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Nordic Banking Strategy: Lending Recovery and Deposit Dynamics Create Alpha

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Norwegian lending markets demonstrate resilient momentum with total lending growth accelerating to 4.0% year-over-year, while household lending maintains robust 4.1% expansion despite monetary tightening cycles. Corporate lending shows measured 2.6% growth, indicating business confidence stabilization as rate cut expectations build. FENRIR identifies compelling opportunities across Nordic banking as credit normalization, deposit repricing, and margin expansion create asymmetric value propositions for sophisticated capital.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Norwegian Banking Leaders: Defensive Yield with Upside

Thesis:

Lending Acceleration: Household lending growth bottomed, with 3.5-5% growth trajectory through 2027e as June rate cuts provide tailwinds
Deposit Advantage: Corporate deposits surging 4.3% year-over-year (from 3.4% prior month), providing funding cost stability
Margin Protection: 17.0% weighted-average capital ratios with diversified income streams supporting credit stability

Implementation:

DNB Bank: Market leader with mortgage dominance and corporate relationships
Nordea Norway: Integrated Nordic platform with funding advantages
SpareBank 1: Regional strength with fee income diversification

2. Nordic Credit Cycle: Cross-Border Arbitrage

Thesis:

Norwegian Outperformance: 4.0% total lending growth versus Sweden's -0.4% and Denmark's 3.4%, indicating relative strength
Deposit Migration: Norwegian household deposits growing 7.6% year-over-year, creating funding stability advantages
Rate Sensitivity: Norwegian banks positioned for margin expansion as central bank easing accelerates

Strategic Positioning:
Overweight Norwegian banks versus Swedish peers facing continued corporate lending contraction at -1.6% year-over-year.

3. Mortgage Market Recovery: Residential Real Estate Proxy

Thesis:

Household Deleveraging Complete: Monthly growth of 0.5% indicates consumer confidence return
Regulatory Tailwinds: Stress test frameworks favor established lenders with proven risk management
Supply Constraints: Limited housing supply supporting mortgage demand sustainability

Cross-Nordic Opportunities

Denmark: Corporate Lending Surge

Bank corporate lending: 9.0% year-over-year growth with 6.9% total lending expansion
Momentum Building: Danske Bank and Jyske Bank positioned for earnings acceleration

Sweden: Contrarian Value

Oversold Conditions: -0.4% total lending decline creates entry opportunities in quality names
Recovery Timing: Swedish banks trade at discounts despite improving deposit trends

Finland: Stabilization Signs

Bottoming Process: -0.9% corporate lending decline moderating from deeper contractions
Nordea Finland: Integration benefits and cost synergies supporting profitability

FENRIR's Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Allocation:

40% Norwegian Banks: DNB, Nordea, SpareBank 1 for defensive growth
30% Danish Banks: Danske Bank, Jyske Bank for cyclical recovery
20% Swedish Banks: SEB, Swedbank for contrarian value
10% Finnish Exposure: Nordea Helsinki for stabilization upside

Risk Management:

Interest Rate Sensitivity: Monitor central bank policy divergence across regions
Credit Quality: Focus on banks with <0.5% cost of risk guidance
Currency Hedging: Manage SEK, DKK, EUR exposure versus NOK strength

Tactical Positioning:

Entry Points: Accumulate on earnings volatility and macro headlines
Dividend Focus: Target 6-8% yields with progressive policies
Exit Strategy: Rebalance as credit cycles normalize across regions

Ready to capitalize on Nordic banking recovery with sophisticated cross-border strategies? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund.

#NordicBanking #CreditRecovery #LendingGrowth #AlternativeInvestments #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

25th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Nordic Shipping Strategy: Navigating Cycle Weakness and Capital Discipline Opportunities

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Global shipping markets demonstrate increasing cycle maturation, with tanker and LPG rates declining while dry bulk shows mixed performance amid fundamental supply-demand rebalancing. FENRIR identifies compelling asymmetric opportunities as our shipping peer group trades at 0.76x P/NAV—a significant discount to net asset values that historically signals attractive entry points for sophisticated capital allocation.

The sector's 52% YTD decline in new ordering across all segments, combined with first year-over-year newbuilding price reduction since February 2021, creates structural tailwinds for asset values and operational leverage. FENRIR's analysis reveals differentiated opportunities across shipping segments, emphasizing quality operators with strong balance sheets positioned to capitalize on supply constraint dynamics and potential rate recovery.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Tanker Market: Contrarian Value Positioning

Current Market Dynamics:

VLCC Spot Rates: USD 81,749/day (-5,317 from Monday), reflecting seasonal and geopolitical normalization following Middle East tensions
Suezmax Performance: USD 37,745/day (-1,067), with product tankers (MR Atlantic) showing strength at USD 32,641/day (+6,956)
Valuation Opportunity: Tanker segment trading at 0.84x P/NAV, approaching historically attractive accumulation levels

FENRIR's Tactical Assessment:
While near-term rate weakness reflects geopolitical risk normalization, underlying fundamentals support medium-term value creation through aging global fleet requiring accelerated replacement cycles. Environmental regulations (IMO 2030) create operational cost advantages for modern tonnage, while limited orderbook replenishment provides supply-side discipline.

2. Dry Bulk: Mixed Signals, Selective Opportunities

Rate Structure Analysis:

Capesize Markets: USD 23,360/day (largely stable) reflecting iron ore trade normalization
Panamax Strength: USD 12,455/day (+201), indicating mid-size vessel demand resilience
Supramax Performance: USD 10,391/day (+51), supporting minor bulk cargo recovery

Strategic Positioning:
FENRIR emphasizes operators with geographic diversification reducing single-trade route dependency, scrubber-fitted vessels providing fuel cost advantages, and strong balance sheets enabling counter-cyclical fleet expansion.

3. LPG Transportation: Energy Transition Beneficiary

Market Fundamentals:

VLGC Rates: USD 72,568/day (-359), with Middle East-Japan routes maintaining structural demand
Sector Valuation: BW LPG trading at 0.72x P/NAV, representing quality exposure at discount valuations

Long-Term Thesis:
LPG transportation benefits from US shale gas production providing abundant feedstock, Asian petrochemical demand supporting ton-mile growth, and LPG as transitional fuel supporting vessel utilization through energy transformation.

4. LNG Shipping: Premium Asset Class

Strategic Value Proposition:

LNG Segment: Trading at 0.75x P/NAV despite structural demand growth
Regulatory Tailwinds: European energy security priorities supporting long-term charter markets
Capital Intensity: High barriers to entry protecting incumbent operators

Supply-Side Dynamics and Orderbook Analysis

Orderbook Discipline Creating Value

Key Structural Changes:

Ordering Decline: 52% YTD reduction across all segments by deadweight tonnage
Lead Time Compression: Average delivery timeline reduced to 2.5 years (from 2.8-year peak in September 2024)
Price Normalization: First year-over-year newbuilding price decline since February 2021 (-0.2%)

FENRIR's Assessment:
Current cycle weakness, absent higher tanker/bulk carrier rates, supports continued newbuilding price normalization—creating attractive asset acquisition opportunities for quality operators with balance sheet flexibility. The combination of reduced ordering activity and compressed lead times indicates shipyard capacity normalization, supporting our thesis of supply-side discipline.

Container Segment Divergence

Exceptional Performance:
Container ordering demonstrates +261% growth versus January-May 2024, driven by supply chain resilience investments and distinct fundamental drivers versus commodity shipping. This divergence reflects the sector's evolution toward specialized trade requirements and technological advancement.

Investment Strategy and Risk Management

Portfolio Construction Framework

Quality Bias Emphasis:
FENRIR targets shipping companies with Net Asset Value discounts exceeding 20%, debt-to-asset ratios below 40%, management teams with proven through-cycle execution, and geographic and cargo diversification. Our sector allocation emphasizes 40% tankers (product tanker exposure and modern VLCC operators), 30% dry bulk (quality Capesize and Supramax operators), 20% gas shipping (LNG and LPG specialists), and 10% specialized segments.

Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Principal Risks:
Key risks include commodity demand volatility from global economic slowdown affecting seaborne trade volumes, accelerating environmental regulation compliance costs, and geopolitical factors disrupting trade routes. FENRIR implements comprehensive hedging strategies including bunker price exposure management, multi-currency FX hedging, and asset value protection through comprehensive operational risk mitigation.

FENRIR's 12-Month Outlook

Catalyst Timeline and Opportunities

Near-Term Catalysts:
Q3 2025 seasonal demand recovery traditionally supports summer rate improvements, while IMO carbon intensity regulations create competitive advantages for efficient operators. M&A activity acceleration is expected as weaker operators face refinancing challenges during the cycle downturn.

Medium-Term Value Creation:
Limited orderbook provides 18-24 month rate recovery runway, while asset value appreciation through P/NAV convergence benefits from replacement cost inflation supporting vessel values. Quality operators offer 8-12% dividend yields during cycle normalization, providing defensive income characteristics.

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

The global shipping sector's current weakness creates compelling risk-adjusted opportunities for sophisticated capital, particularly targeting quality operators trading below replacement asset values. Our emphasis on balance sheet strength, operational excellence, and environmental compliance positions portfolios to capture asymmetric upside as supply-demand fundamentals rebalance.

The combination of orderbook discipline, regulatory tailwinds, and P/NAV discounts provides multiple value creation pathways while maintaining downside protection through asset backing and defensive dividend characteristics. FENRIR's conviction centers on structural margin expansion opportunities during supply constraint periods and the sector's historical mean reversion tendencies.

Ready to navigate shipping cycle opportunities with sophisticated risk management and sector expertise? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Maritime Transportation Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #ShippingMarkets #MaritimeTransportation #CyclicalInvesting #NordicShipping #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

25th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Aker BP Strategic Assessment: Norwegian Continental Shelf Excellence at Valuation Crossroads

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Aker BP trades at NOK 269.00 following ABG Sundal Collier's downgrade to HOLD with a NOK 290 target price, reflecting the sector's transition from geopolitical premium valuations to fundamental commodity cycle realities. While the company has delivered massive outperformance versus international peers (+47% YTD in USD terms including dividends), FENRIR identifies compelling strategic value in Norway's premier E&P operator, particularly as conventional multiples compress toward historical norms.

The company's exceptional operational performance and strategic positioning on the Norwegian Continental Shelf creates distinctive competitive advantages within FENRIR's Nordic energy strategy. Our conviction centers on Aker BP's unique combination of tier-1 asset quality, operational excellence, and balance sheet flexibility supporting superior through-cycle shareholder returns.

FENRIR's Investment Framework

1. Commodity Cycle Positioning: Tactical Opportunity

Macro Environment:

Oil Price Reality: Brent forecast at USD 71/bbl (2025e) and USD 70/bbl (2026e), with normalization to USD 80/bbl through 2030e
Natural Gas Dynamics: European prices maintaining USD 12.3/mmBTU (2025e) before declining to structural USD 9.0/mmBTU levels
Currency Tailwinds: USD/NOK assumption of 10.0 providing one-to-one translation benefits versus previous 10.5 estimates

Strategic Assessment:
While consensus oil forecasts reflect well-supplied markets, FENRIR emphasizes the quality of Aker BP's reserve base and operational excellence driving superior cash conversion. The company's integrated Norwegian Continental Shelf portfolio, including stakes in Johan Sverdrup, Edvard Grieg, and Valhall, provides defensive characteristics during commodity volatility.

2. Financial Architecture & Capital Allocation Excellence

Earnings Trajectory:

2025e Performance: USD 2.25 EPS representing measured decline from 2024's USD 2.90, yet maintaining robust cash generation capabilities
Free Cash Flow Generation: 4.8% FCF yield (2025e) expanding to 18.6% (2027e) as production optimization accelerates
Dividend Sustainability: 9.5% dividend yield (2025e) expanding to 15.0% (2027e) with progressive policy intact

Balance Sheet Strength:

Net Debt Management: 0.5x EBITDA (2025e) rising to 0.9x (2026e) before declining to 0.6x (2027e), maintaining investment-grade flexibility
Capital Discipline: Focused capex allocation emphasizing high-return Norwegian developments with proven reserve replacement
Shareholder Returns: Combined dividend and potential buyback programs supporting total returns through commodity cycles

3. Operational Excellence & Production Growth

Asset Quality:

Reserve Base: Broad exposure across Norwegian Continental Shelf with tier-1 assets providing long-term production visibility
Production Efficiency: Integrated operations across multiple platforms driving industry-leading cost structures
Technology Leadership: Advanced reservoir management and enhanced oil recovery techniques maximizing asset value

Growth Trajectory:

Organic Development: Systematic field development program supporting production growth and reserve replacement
Inorganic Opportunities: Proven M&A execution capability, demonstrated through successful Lundin Energy acquisition
Operational Synergies: Integrated Norwegian operations creating cost advantages and production efficiencies

Valuation Analysis & Strategic Allocation

Multiple Compression Dynamics

Current Metrics vs. History:

P/E 2025e: 11.9x approaching sector normalization from previous premium levels
EV/EBITDA: 2.3x (2025e) versus historical commodity cycle ranges
Dividend Yield: 9.5% (2025e) representing attractive income characteristics

Peer Positioning:
Aker BP's recent outperformance versus European E&P average reflects Norwegian Continental Shelf quality advantages and operational excellence 1. However, conventional metrics suggest fair value convergence toward NOK 290-300 range absent sustained commodity recovery.

Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis

Asset Valuation:

Johan Sverdrup: Crown jewel asset representing significant portion of NAV with long-term production visibility
Integrated Portfolio: Diversified Norwegian Continental Shelf exposure providing risk mitigation and upside optionality
Development Pipeline: Proven track record of value-accretive project execution and reserve growth

Sensitivity Framework:

Base Case (USD 75 oil): NOK 290 fair value alignment with ABG Sundal Collier assessment
Bear Case (USD 60 oil): Downside protection through operational excellence and cost flexibility
Bull Case (USD 85 oil): Significant upside leverage through operational gearing and dividend acceleration

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Commodity Exposure:

Price Volatility: Oil and gas price sensitivity affecting near-term earnings trajectory
Demand Transition: Long-term energy transition concerns affecting conventional energy valuations
Supply Dynamics: Global production capacity additions potentially pressuring commodity prices

Operational Considerations:

Regulatory Environment: Norwegian petroleum tax regime changes affecting project economics
Environmental Standards: Increasing ESG requirements potentially constraining operations
Technology Risks: Complex offshore operations requiring continued technical excellence

Strategic Mitigation

FENRIR's Approach:

Position Sizing: Maximum 4% allocation within Nordic energy sleeve
Currency Hedging: USD/NOK exposure management protecting against exchange rate volatility
Diversification Benefits: Norwegian Continental Shelf exposure providing geographic and regulatory stability

Monitoring Framework:

Production Guidance: Quarterly operational performance and reserve replacement ratios
Capital Allocation: Dividend sustainability and M&A execution effectiveness
Commodity Sensitivity: Oil and gas price impact on cash flow generation

FENRIR's 12-Month Strategy

Tactical Positioning Framework

Current Opportunity:
Recent valuation compression creates attractive entry points for quality Norwegian energy exposure, particularly for investors seeking defensive energy characteristics and operational excellence. The combination of Norwegian Continental Shelf stability, proven management execution, and balance sheet strength provides asymmetric risk-reward during the current commodity environment.

Implementation Strategy:

Phased Accumulation: Building 3-4% position over 6-month period utilizing market volatility
Technical Entry: Support levels around NOK 260-270 providing attractive risk-reward entry points
Catalyst Timing: Q2 2025 earnings (July 15) and potential strategic announcements

Strategic Investment Rationale

While traditional oil equity metrics appear normalized following recent outperformance, Aker BP represents sophisticated exposure to Norwegian Continental Shelf leadership, operational excellence, and balance sheet quality supporting through-cycle value creation 1. The company's integrated approach to E&P operations provides defensive characteristics during commodity volatility while maintaining upside participation in energy price recovery.

Ready to access Norwegian Continental Shelf excellence with sophisticated risk management? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Nordic Energy Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #NorwegianEnergy #ContinentalShelf #AkerBPAnalysis #EnergyStrategy #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

25th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Rana Gruber Strategic Analysis: Nordic Resource Excellence and High-Grade Iron Ore Transition

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

FENRIR presents a comprehensive assessment of Rana Gruber (RANA-NO) at NOK 71.80, following ABG Sundal Collier's initiation coverage with a BUY rating and NOK 84 target price, representing 17% upside potential. As Europe's steel industry undergoes a fundamental transformation toward sustainable Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) production, FENRIR identifies compelling strategic value in Norway's premier iron ore producer, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the structural shift toward high-grade ore demand exceeding 67% Fe content.

The company's 200-year operational heritage, combined with proven reserves exceeding 400 million tonnes and integrated logistics infrastructure, creates distinctive competitive advantages within FENRIR's Nordic resource strategy. Our conviction centers on Rana Gruber's transition from traditional 62% Fe production to premium-grade concentrate, targeting Fe 65% by 2025 and ultimately Fe 67% by 2030, aligning precisely with European steel mills' decarbonization requirements.

FENRIR's Investment Framework

1. High-Grade Iron Ore: The Green Steel Catalyst

Structural Demand Transformation:

DRI Technology Adoption: European steel mills transitioning from coal-based blast furnaces to hydrogen-powered DRI requires Fe content above 66%, with only 3% of global supply currently meeting this specification
Supply-Demand Imbalance: Global DR-grade iron ore demand projected to exceed 300mt by 2031, creating a 109mt supply deficit equivalent to 50% of current high-grade production
Premium Pricing Potential: Laboratory tests confirm Rana Gruber's ore properties support Fe 67% production, potentially commanding USD 20+ per tonne premium versus 62% Fe benchmark pricing

Competitive Positioning:
Rana Gruber's northern Norway location provides strategic proximity to European steel producers, with 6-8 monthly hematite shipments and 6-10 magnetite deliveries ensuring reliable supply chain integration. The company's 35km rail connection from Dunderland Valley mines to ice-free Mo i Rana port creates year-round export capabilities with minimal transportation costs.

2. ESG Leadership and Carbon Advantage

Operational Excellence:

Carbon Intensity: 7.17 kg CO₂ per tonne of iron ore produced (Scope 1+2), among the lowest globally due to 100% Norwegian hydropower consumption
Electrification Initiative: Advanced electric drilling machinery deployment in underground operations at Ørtfjell, reinforcing sustainability leadership
Supply Chain Efficiency: Short sailing distances to European customers reduce transport emissions while supporting regional supply security amid geopolitical tensions

Regulatory Alignment:
European Union's Green Deal 2.0 and carbon border adjustment mechanisms increasingly favor low-carbon input materials, positioning Rana Gruber as a preferred supplier for ESG-focused steel producers pursuing Net Zero 2050 commitments.

3. Production Optimization and Margin Expansion

Operational Metrics:

Production Capacity: 4.8 million tonnes crude ore and 1.85 million tonnes concentrate annually through 2035, with underground mining transitioning to Level 59 by 2028
Magnetite Growth Strategy: Expanding specialized production from 150,000 tonnes (2024) to 200,000 tonnes (2026), capturing premium pricing in water purification and chemical applications
Processing Efficiency: Fe65 index-linked pricing implementation expected H2 2025, with final processing plant upgrades completing Q2 2025

Cost Structure Excellence:

Cash Cost Target: USD 50-55 per tonne guidance maintained, with potential infrastructure investments at Storforshei reducing operating expenses by USD 2 per tonne
Financial Flexibility: Net debt position of only 0.4x EBITDA with NOK 200m lease liabilities, supporting aggressive capital allocation and dividend sustainability

Valuation Analysis & Strategic Allocation

Financial Architecture

Earnings Trajectory:

2025e Estimates: NOK 9.06 EPS with 13.3% FCF yield, supporting NOK 5.09 DPS representing 7.1% dividend yield
2026e Projections: NOK 9.64 EPS expansion driving NOK 6.75 DPS and 9.4% dividend yield through 50-70% payout ratio policy
Cash Generation: NOK 86 per tonne normalized cash break-even (62% Fe equivalent), declining to NOK 71 per tonne when accounting for premium magnetite pricing

Multiple Analysis:

Current Valuation: 3.9x 2026e EV/EBITDA versus 4.8x peer median, 7.4x 2026e P/E versus 9.9x peer median
Target Price Methodology: ABG Sundal Collier's NOK 84 target reflects 25% DCF weighting, 25% EV/EBITDA, 25% P/E, and 25% FCF yield analysis
Upside Scenarios: Fe 67% achievement could add substantial premium pricing, with illustrative USD 15-20 per tonne grade adjustments versus benchmark indices

Strategic Risk-Reward Assessment

Key Investment Drivers:

Offtake Security: Exclusive Cargill agreement through 2035 with 5-year extension option guarantees 100% hematite sales with 90% payment upon vessel loading
Resource Longevity: 400+ million tonne resource base supports multi-decade production horizon with stable cash generation characteristics
European Integration: Geographic proximity and reliability position Rana Gruber favorably amid increasing focus on regional supply chain security

Risk Factors:

Commodity Volatility: Iron ore price sensitivity remains, though high-grade premium pricing provides partial insulation
Technology Execution: Fe 67% production scale-up requires continued R&D investment and processing optimization
Environmental Regulations: Tailings disposal capacity limited to 3.0mt annually, constraining production expansion potential

FENRIR's Strategic Implementation

Portfolio Integration Strategy

Thematic Alignment:

Nordic Resource Leadership: Complements existing Norwegian energy and maritime technology exposures
ESG Integration: Sustainable mining operations align with FENRIR's environmental transition themes
Defensive Characteristics: Stable dividend policy and regulated utility-like attributes provide portfolio diversification

Position Sizing Framework:

Target Allocation: 2-3% position within Nordic industrial materials sleeve
Entry Strategy: Phased accumulation around NOK 70-72 levels utilizing market volatility
Risk Management: Maximum single-name exposure limits with commodity hedging consideration

12-Month Investment Horizon

Catalyst Timeline:

Q2 2025 Earnings: Fe65 processing upgrade completion and first index-linked shipments
H2 2025 Developments: Stensundtjern open-pit production commencement and magnetite volume expansion
2026 Milestones: Full Fe65 pricing implementation and potential Fe67 pilot production advancement

Performance Expectations:

Base Case: NOK 84 target price representing 17% upside plus 9-10% dividend yields
Bull Scenario: Premium grade pricing acceleration driving additional 15-20% revaluation potential
Risk Scenario: Commodity cycle compression contained by defensive operational characteristics

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Rana Gruber exemplifies the intersection of Nordic operational excellence, ESG leadership, and structural commodity transition that defines FENRIR's investment philosophy. The company's unique positioning within Europe's green steel transformation, combined with proven resource quality and integrated logistics advantages, creates asymmetric upside opportunities for sophisticated capital.

Our analysis emphasizes the defensive dividend characteristics, sustainable cost structure, and premium product development potential that distinguish Rana Gruber from traditional commodity exposures. The convergence of European industrial policy, climate transition requirements, and regional supply security concerns supports long-term value creation through specialized high-grade iron ore production.

Ready to access Nordic resource leadership with ESG integration and defensive yield characteristics? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Materials Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #NordicResources #IronOre #GreenSteel #ESGInvesting #DividendYield #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

25th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Equinor Strategic Assessment: Nordic Energy Leadership Amid Commodity Cycle Maturation

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Equinor trades at NOK 263.50 following ABG Sundal Collier's downgrade to HOLD with a NOK 290 target price, reflecting the sector's transition from post-conflict premium valuations to fundamental commodity cycle realities. While oil markets demonstrate robust supply conditions absent geopolitical disruptions, FENRIR identifies compelling strategic value in Europe's leading integrated energy transition platform, particularly as conventional multiples compress toward historical norms.

The company's massive outperformance versus international peers (+47% YTD in USD terms including dividends) has eliminated traditional value metrics, yet FENRIR's analysis reveals structural positioning advantages that justify selective exposure during the current valuation reset. Our conviction centers on Equinor's unique combination of Norwegian Continental Shelf cash generation, renewable energy leadership, and balance sheet flexibility supporting long-term shareholder returns.

FENRIR's Investment Framework

1. Commodity Cycle Positioning: Tactical Opportunity

Macro Environment:

Oil Price Assumptions: Brent forecast at USD 71/bbl (2025e) and USD 70/bbl (2026e), with normalization to USD 80/bbl through 2030e
Natural Gas Dynamics: European prices maintaining USD 12.3/MMBtu (2025e) before declining to USD 9.0/MMBtu structural levels
Currency Tailwinds: USD/NOK assumption of 10.0 providing one-to-one translation benefits versus previous 10.5 estimates

Strategic Assessment:
While consensus oil forecasts reflect well-supplied markets, FENRIR emphasizes the quality of Equinor's reserve base and operational excellence driving superior cash conversion. The company's 7.9x 2025e P/E versus 8.6x 2026e indicates earnings trajectory stabilization, supporting dividend sustainability at current NOK levels.

2. Financial Architecture & Capital Allocation

Earnings Trajectory:

2025e EPS: NOK 32.8 (USD 3.28) representing 2.2% growth despite commodity headwinds
Free Cash Flow Generation: 13.0% FCF yield (2025e) declining to 9.3% (2027e) as reinvestment accelerates
Dividend Policy: 5.7% yield (2025e) expanding to 6.4% (2027e) with progressive policy intact

Balance Sheet Strength:

Net Debt Position: 0.4x EBITDA across forecast period, maintaining investment-grade flexibility
Capital Discipline: USD 12.9bn capex (2025e) emphasizing high-return Norwegian developments
Shareholder Returns: Combined dividend and buyback program targeting USD 10.5bn (2025e)

3. Energy Transition Leadership

Renewable Energy Platform:

Offshore Wind Portfolio: 30+ GW pipeline with Norwegian, UK, and US exposure
Technology Integration: Floating wind leadership supporting deeper water development
Strategic Partnerships: Joint ventures with BP, Shell reducing execution risk and capital intensity

Carbon Management:

Net Zero Commitment: 2050 target with interim 2030 milestones
Scope 1-2 Emissions: 50% reduction by 2030 from 2020 baseline
CCS Technology: Northern Lights project establishing European CO2 transport and storage leadership

Valuation Analysis & Peer Comparison

Multiple Compression Dynamics

Current Metrics vs. History:

P/E 2025e: 7.9x approaching 5-year average of 8.5x
EV/EBITDA: 2.0x (2025e) versus historical range of 1.5-4.2x
P/BVPS: 1.53x representing premium to asset replacement cost

Peer Positioning:
Equinor's premium versus European integrated oil average reflects renewable energy optionality and Norwegian fiscal regime advantages 1. However, conventional metrics suggest fair value convergence toward NOK 280-300 range absent commodity recovery.

Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis

NAV Components:

Norwegian E&P: 60% of 2P NAV reflecting Tier-1 asset quality
International Assets: 25% weight with Angola, US, and Brazil exposure
Renewable Development: 15% of enterprise value reflecting growth optionality

Sensitivity Framework:

Base Case (USD 75 oil): NOK 290 fair value
Bear Case (USD 60 oil): NOK 240 downside scenario
Bull Case (USD 85 oil): NOK 350 upside potential

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Commodity Exposure:

Demand Destruction: Electric vehicle adoption accelerating petroleum displacement
Supply Growth: US shale production resilience limiting price recovery
Geopolitical Risk: Middle East tensions creating volatility without sustainable premiums

Transition Execution:

Capital Allocation: Renewable energy projects requiring patient capital and technology risks
Regulatory Environment: Norwegian petroleum tax regime changes affecting project economics
Stranded Asset Risk: Conventional energy investments facing accelerated depreciation

Strategic Mitigation

FENRIR's Approach:

Position Sizing: Maximum 4% allocation within Nordic energy sleeve
Hedging Strategies: Commodity derivatives protecting downside below USD 65 Brent
Diversification Benefits: Renewable energy exposure uncorrelated with traditional energy cycles

Monitoring Framework:

Production Guidance: 2.0 mboe/d target maintenance requiring continued investment
Renewable Pipeline: 30 GW development milestones and FID timing
Capital Returns: Dividend sustainability and buyback execution during commodity weakness

FENRIR's 12-Month Strategy

Tactical Entry Strategy

Current Opportunity:
Recent underperformance creates attractive entry points for quality Norwegian energy exposure, particularly for investors seeking defensive energy characteristics and transition optionality 1. The combination of Norwegian Continental Shelf stability, renewable energy leadership, and balance sheet strength provides asymmetric risk-reward during the current commodity cycle 1.

Implementation Framework:

Phased Accumulation: Building 3-4% position over 3-6 month period
Technical Entry: Support levels at NOK 250 providing attractive risk-reward
Catalyst Timing: Q2 2025 earnings (July 23) and renewable energy project updates

Strategic Positioning Rationale

While traditional oil equity metrics appear stretched, Equinor represents sophisticated exposure to Nordic energy leadership, renewable technology development, and balance sheet quality supporting through-cycle value creation. The company's integrated approach to energy transition provides defensive characteristics during commodity volatility while maintaining upside participation in renewable energy development.

Ready to access Nordic energy transition leadership with sophisticated risk management? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Energy Transition Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #NordicEnergy #EnergyTransition #EquinorAnalysis #OffshoreWind #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

FENRIR – Nordic Credit Strategy: Navigating Geopolitical Volatility and Structural Transitions

25th of June 2025
MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors

The credit markets present a compelling dichotomy as geopolitical tensions subside while structural credit opportunities emerge across Nordic high-yield segments. Oil's retreat from $81 to $67/bbl following the Iran-Israel ceasefire creates tactical entry points, while Brent's fundamental weakness toward our $60 2025 target suggests strategic short positioning remains attractive. FENRIR's analysis reveals significant alpha opportunities across credit sectors, with Nordic HY spreads offering 100-200bps premiums versus European peers.

The Arctic HY Index trades at 224bps risk premium versus iTraxx CrossOver, reflecting persistent dislocations in specialized sectors where FENRIR maintains strategic positioning 6. Our proprietary framework identifies five compelling investment themes across energy transition, technology consolidation, and defensive credit positioning.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Energy Transition Credit: Selective Long Positioning

Tidewater Capital Structure Optimization

The offshore services leader's USD 650m unsecured bond issuance at 9.125% represents exemplary liability management, retiring higher-cost secured debt (8.50% '26 bonds) and unsecured obligations (10.375% '28 bonds) . This refinancing extends maturity profile while reducing blended cost of capital by approximately 75bps, strengthening balance sheet flexibility amid drilling market normalization .

Saudi Aramco Rig Suspensions: Contrarian Opportunity

The ongoing suspension of 39 jack-up rigs across eight contractors creates sector-wide pressure, yet positions surviving operators for margin expansion as supply tightens . FENRIR targets drilling contractors with diversified geographic exposure and strong balance sheets capable of redeploying assets to Southeast Asia and West Africa markets showing sequential recovery .

2. Nordic Technology Convergence: Consolidation Alpha

IT and Software Sector Analysis

Nordic software companies trading at significant discounts to global peers present compelling M&A targets 6. FENRIR's analysis of companies like Sinch (STIB3M + 175bps), representing defensive growth characteristics, versus higher-risk ventures requiring 600-750bps spreads 6. The sector's digital transformation tailwinds support credit quality improvement across our targeted exposures.

Gaming and Entertainment: Regulatory Resilience

Betsson's negative spread (-176bps) on EUR003M + 460bps bonds reflects regulatory adaptation success, while sector consolidation continues with Stillfront trading at reasonable STIB3M + 365-395bps spreads 6. FENRIR emphasizes operators with diversified jurisdictional exposure and proven compliance frameworks.

3. Real Estate Credit: Selective Distressed Opportunities

Swedish Property Sector Differentiation

Significant dispersion exists between quality domestic operators (Platzer at STIB3M + 130-285bps) and distressed assets (Samhallsbyggnadsbolaget trading 77-96% of par) 6. FENRIR's strategy targets geographically diversified landlords with defensive tenant profiles while avoiding development-heavy exposure.

Norwegian Commercial Real Estate Stability

Norwegian Property's secured obligations trading at NIBOR3M + 80-140bps reflect underlying asset quality and conservative leverage profiles 6. These defensive characteristics align with FENRIR's emphasis on inflation-protected real assets amid monetary policy normalization.

4. Energy and Commodities: Tactical Positioning

Renewable Energy Infrastructure

Scatec's progressive spread tightening (NIBOR3M + 660bps to 315bps across 2027-2029 maturities) demonstrates improving ESG credit profiles 6. FENRIR emphasizes renewable developers with construction-to-operations risk mitigation and long-term PPA coverage exceeding 70%.

Seafood Sector: Margin Recovery Cycle

Norwegian aquaculture leaders (Austevoll, Grieg Seafood) benefit from normalized biology costs and feed price deflation, supporting credit spread compression 6. FENRIR targets integrated producers with superior fish ratios and Asian market exposure commanding premium pricing.

5. Financial Services: Nordic Banking Resilience

Regional Banking Consolidation

Nordic banks maintain 17.0% weighted-average RAC ratios with diversified income streams supporting credit stability. FENRIR emphasizes institutions with digital leadership and fee income diversification as net interest margin compression accelerates through 2025-26.

Alternative Lending Opportunities

Consumer finance specialists offering STIB3M + 500-675bps spreads reflect normalization from COVID-era stress while maintaining attractive risk-adjusted returns 6. FENRIR targets operators with proven underwriting discipline and geographic diversification.

Risk Management & Portfolio Construction

Macro Risk Factors

Geopolitical Volatility: Iran-Israel tensions create ongoing oil price risk, requiring dynamic hedging strategies
Monetary Policy Transition: Nordic central bank easing cycles pressuring NIM-dependent issuers
Credit Cycle Maturation: Rising default expectations requiring active credit selection and position sizing

Sector-Specific Risks

Energy Services: Saudi Aramco demand volatility affecting regional drilling contractors
Real Estate: Swedish commercial property stress continuing through interest rate cycle
Technology: M&A financing availability constraining sector consolidation timelines

FENRIR's Implementation Strategy

Our Nordic credit allocation emphasizes quality bias with investment-grade-to-crossover credits featuring strong sponsorship and market positioning . Sector diversification maintains maximum 15% allocation to any single sector, emphasizing defensive characteristics while geographic focus targets 60% Nordic exposure with selective European and North American opportunities.

Duration management prioritizes floating-rate preference given monetary policy uncertainty, while our comprehensive risk management framework captures opportunities across sectors while maintaining alignment with core objectives.

Key Positioning Priorities:

Overweight: Energy transition infrastructure, Nordic technology leaders, defensive real estate
Underweight: Commodity-exposed E&P, development-stage real estate, consumer discretionary
Tactical Opportunities: Distressed energy services, Norwegian aquaculture, Swedish PropTech

FENRIR's conviction centers on structural margin expansion driven by biological optimization, feed cost normalization, and quality premiums across our targeted Nordic credit exposures 6. The sector's compelling valuations represent significant value versus historical averages, particularly for integrated operators with superior operational metrics and processing capabilities.

Ready to access Nordic credit alpha through sophisticated risk management and fundamental analysis? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Credit Opportunities Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #NordicCredit #EnergyTransition #CreditOpportunities #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

25th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Norwegian Seafood Strategy: Navigating Supply Cycles and Margin Expansion

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Norwegian salmon exports surged 17.8% WoW to 32,585 tonnes, with prices retreating to low NOK 60s amid robust supply dynamics. While headline volatility reflects seasonal patterns, FENRIR identifies compelling structural opportunities in Europe's premium protein complex, where regulatory tailwinds, biological optimization, and consolidation dynamics create asymmetric value propositions for sophisticated capital.

Our analysis reveals that current spot pricing of NOK 74/kg represents a 19% discount to our NOK 92/kg normalized assumptions, creating tactical entry points across the value chain. With Q3 2025 Chilean export growth projected at 16.9% and Norwegian biomass expanding 8.7% YoY, supply-side pressures mask underlying demand resilience and margin recovery catalysts.

FENRIR's Thematic Investment Framework

1. Norwegian Aquaculture Leaders: Quality Premium Convergence

Thesis:

Margin Expansion Phase: Superior fish ratios improving to 79% (West), 83% (Central), creating 15-20% EBIT/kg premiums over production-grade salmon
Biological Optimization: Sea lice treatments declining 40% YoY, mortality rates at 5-year lows following winter wound vaccine adoption
Feed Cost Deflation: 26% reduction in feed basket costs versus 2022-23 averages, providing NOK 4-6/kg margin tailwinds

Strategic Positioning:

Mowi (MOWI-NO): Trading 8.0x 2025e EV/EBITDA despite global integration advantages and 474k tonne volume base
SalMar (SALM-NO): 10.0x 2025e EV/EBITDA with 22% volume growth trajectory and mid-Norway operational excellence
Lerøy Seafood (LSG-NO): 6.7x 2025e EV/EBITDA, undervalued relative to integrated VAP (value-added processing) capabilities

2. Biological Innovation & Technology Platform

Thesis:

Mechanical Treatment Evolution: Advanced delousing systems reducing mortality by 60% while maintaining fish welfare standards
Temperature Management: Norwegian seawater temperatures normalizing post-2024 anomalies, supporting optimal growth conditions
Genetic Selection Programs: Average harvest weights increasing to 4.8kg, optimizing processing yields and premium pricing

Implementation Strategy:
Companies demonstrating superior biological performance metrics command 25-30% EBIT/kg premiums, justifying quality-focused allocation strategies.

3. Land-Based Aquaculture: Emerging Alpha Generation

Thesis:

Capital Intensity Rationalization: Second-generation facilities achieving 15-20% IRRs versus first-generation sub-10% returns
Proximity Premium: Land-based production near major consumption centers capturing NOK 10-15/kg logistics advantages
Regulatory Tailwinds: Environmental sustainability mandates favoring controlled production systems

Selective Exposure:

Atlantic Sapphire (AUSS-NO): 4.1x 2025e EV/EBITDA with 14.0% FCF yield targeting profitable expansion
Salmon Evolution (SALME-NO): Technology platform play with 23.8x 2025e EV/EBITDA reflecting growth optionality

4. Feed & Input Cost Arbitrage

Thesis:

Marine Ingredient Deflation: Fishmeal prices down 9%, fish oil declining 46% from 2023 peaks
Soy Complex Weakness: Vegetable protein costs creating sustainable margin expansion for integrated producers
Currency Tailwinds: NOK strength versus USD reducing imported ingredient costs by 8-12%

Margin Recovery Timeline:
Feed cost improvements translating to NOK 5-7/kg EBIT expansion through 2025-26, supporting consensus 11.2x average sector P/E compression.

Demand Architecture & Export Dynamics

Geographic Diversification Strategy

China Premium Maintenance: NOK 40-50/kg premium versus European pricing supporting 25.0% YTD export growth
US Market Penetration: Chilean fillet competition intensifying but Norwegian whole fish maintaining USD 3-4/lb premiums
European Retail Resilience: Processing demand from Poland/Denmark indicating downstream inventory building ahead of seasonal consumption

Protein Complex Positioning

Norwegian salmon trading at 2.1x average protein multiples, justified by:

Nutritional Density: Omega-3 content and ESG sustainability credentials driving healthcare/wellness premiums
Supply Constraint: Biological production limits versus scalable terrestrial proteins
Income Elasticity: Premium positioning in discretionary protein spending

Valuation Framework & Strategic Allocation

Sector Metrics Overview

Company-Specific Targets

Mowi: 12% volume growth supporting NOK 1,176 EURm EBIT (37% above consensus)
SalMar: 22% production expansion with NOK 9,516m EBIT targeting 72% growth premium
Lerøy: Integrated processing margins expanding through superior fish optimization

Risk Management & Portfolio Construction

Operational Risk Factors

Biological Volatility: Sea lice resurgence or temperature anomalies affecting mortality rates
Regulatory Shifts: Environmental restrictions potentially constraining production growth
Currency Exposure: NOK appreciation versus EUR/USD reducing export competitiveness

Market Risk Mitigation

Supply Timing Risk: Chilean Q3 volume surge potentially extending price weakness through Q4
Feed Cost Inflation: Marine ingredient price recovery reducing margin expansion velocity
Demand Elasticity: Economic slowdown affecting premium protein consumption patterns

FENRIR's Strategic Implementation

While near-term pricing volatility reflects seasonal supply dynamics, our conviction centers on structural margin expansion driven by biological optimization, feed cost normalization, and quality premiums. The sector's 11.2x 2025e EV/EBITDA represents compelling value versus historical 14.5x averages, particularly for integrated operators with superior fish ratios and processing capabilities.

Key Investment Priorities:

Overweight: Norwegian integrated producers with >75% superior fish ratios
Selective Exposure: Land-based pioneers achieving commercial viability
Hedge Positioning: Feed cost volatility through commodity-linked derivatives

Ready to capitalize on Norwegian seafood's margin expansion cycle with sophisticated risk management? Contact FENRIR Global at www.fenrir.fund to explore our Nordic Aquaculture Strategy.

#AlternativeInvestments #NorwegianSeafood #Aquaculture #SalmonFarming #NordicEquities #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

‍

24th of June 2025

MARKETING MATERIAL for Sophisticated Investors:

FENRIR – Kongsberg Gruppen Strategic Analysis: Defense Premium vs. Maritime Value Convergence

Executive Summary & Market Context

FENRIR presents a comprehensive analysis of Kongsberg Gruppen (KOG:NO) at a critical inflection point, trading at NOK 378.2 amid unprecedented NATO defense spending commitments and maritime technology transformation. While consensus maintains elevated defense optimism following today's NATO Summit agreement to raise spending targets to 5% of GDP by 2035, our proprietary analysis reveals significant valuation disparities and strategic opportunities across the company's diversified industrial portfolio.

The market currently assigns singular defense narratives to a sophisticated technology conglomerate where maritime operations represent 60% of revenues, creating both risks and asymmetric value opportunities for discerning investors. FENRIR's assessment integrates geopolitical defense spending realities with maritime digitalization trends, positioning for the next phase of industrial technology convergence.

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Valuation Architecture & Premium Justification Analysis

Current Market Positioning:

Trading Metrics: 39.5x 2026e P/E versus European defense peer average of 22.6x, representing a 78% premium to global peers
Growth Expectations: 24% EPS CAGR through 2027e embedded in current valuation, requiring flawless execution
Multiple Compression Risk: DNB Carnegie's NOK 250 target price implies 34% downside from current levels

FENRIR's Valuation Framework:
The market's defense-centric valuation methodology overlooks the fundamental business composition, where maritime technology platforms offer distinct risk-return characteristics.
Our analysis suggests the 60% maritime revenue base trades at unwarranted defense multiples, creating both downside protection and re-rating opportunities.

2. NATO Summit Implications & Defense Spending Reality

Policy Architecture:

5% GDP Target Structure: 3.5% direct defense spending plus 1.5% security infrastructure by 2035.
Implementation Challenges: Major NATO contributors including Germany (39% of budget) face fiscal constraints and political resistance.
Geographic Revenue Exposure: Only 19.5% of Kongsberg's total revenues derive from European defense spending.

Strategic Assessment:
While NATO's spending commitments provide supportive headlines, FENRIR emphasizes execution risks and timeline uncertainties.
Spain's rejection of the 5% target and requests for extensions from major economies highlight implementation challenges that current valuations appear to discount.

3. Maritime Division: Technology Transformation Catalyst

Business Fundamentals:

Q3 2024 Performance: 30% revenue growth year-over-year to NOK 6.49 billion, demonstrating robust underlying demand
Digital Integration: Kongsberg Digital's maritime operations merger brings 500 employees and NOK 600 million revenues
Market Position: Leading integrated automation systems serving both existing fleet retrofits and new vessel construction

Competitive Advantages:

Technology Moat: Proprietary control systems for 85% of global offshore installations
Recurring Revenue Model: Maritime digitalization creating subscription-based revenue streams
ESG Alignment: Autonomous vessel technology and emission reduction solutions addressing IMO 2030 regulations

Order Backlog Dynamics & Revenue Visibility

Contract Portfolio Analysis

Historic Growth Trajectory:

Total Backlog: NOK 133.2 billion as of Q1 2025, providing 2.7x revenue coverage
Defense Segment: +205% backlog growth driven by geopolitical tensions and NATO modernization
Recent Wins: German Joint Strike Missile order worth NOK 6.5 billion reinforces technology leadership

Quality Metrics:

Book-to-Bill Ratios: Sustained >1.2x across all divisions indicating strong demand momentum
Revenue Conversion: Average 18-month cycle from order to revenue recognition
Geographic Diversification: 71% European, 25% US exposure reducing single-market concentration risk

Contract Value & Margin Analysis

High-Margin Defense Portfolio:

JSM Technology: Advanced air-launched missiles with 30-40% operating margins versus 15% company average
Network Effects: F-35 integration creating barrier to entry for competitors
Government-to-Government Frameworks: Reducing execution risk and political volatility

Peer Analysis & Competitive Positioning

Defense Sector Comparison

Valuation Disconnect:
Kongsberg's premium cannot be justified by European defense exposure alone, given its mixed business portfolio 4. The company's 50% European revenue exposure and 40% defense purity suggest misalignment with pure-play defense valuations.

Maritime Technology Positioning

Technology Leadership:

Integrated Systems: Comprehensive vessel automation platforms versus component suppliers
Digital Transformation: AI and IoT integration across maritime value chain
Sustainability Focus: Autonomous vessels reducing maritime emissions by 20-30%

FENRIR's Strategic Trade Structures

1. Relative Value: Maritime Technology vs. Defense Premium

Implementation Strategy:

Tactical Position: 2-3% portfolio allocation during NATO summit volatility
Hedging Approach: Pair trade versus pure-play defense names trading at lower multiples
Timeline: 12-18 month holding period targeting maritime technology re-rating

Risk-Reward Profile:

Upside Catalyst: Maritime division recognition drives multiple expansion
Downside Protection: Defense spending provides earnings floor
Volatility Management: Diversified revenue streams reduce single-theme exposure

2. Event-Driven NATO Policy Implementation

Near-Term Catalysts:

Defense Spending Announcements: Country-specific budget allocations following 5% GDP commitment
Contract Award Timeline: JSM production milestones and follow-on orders
Technology Demonstrations: Autonomous vessel trials and commercial deployments

Execution Framework:

Entry Strategy: Utilize headline volatility for position building below NOK 350
Exit Triggers: Defense premium normalization or maritime multiple expansion
Position Sizing: Maximum 3% single-name exposure with currency hedging

3. Long-Term Maritime Digitalization Theme

Investment Horizon: 24-36 months
Structural Drivers:

Regulatory Compliance: IMO emission standards driving retrofit demand
Supply Chain Resilience: COVID-19 lessons accelerating automation adoption
Energy Transition: Offshore wind and renewable energy infrastructure

Risk Assessment & Mitigation Framework

Principal Investment Risks

Geopolitical Risk Factors:

Defense Spending Shortfall: NATO 5% targets prove politically unfeasible
Trade Policy Changes: Potential impact on international defense cooperation
Regional Conflicts: Escalation or de-escalation affecting defense priorities

Operational Execution Risks:

Technology Integration: Maritime digital transformation complexity
Supply Chain Constraints: Defense production scaling challenges
Currency Exposure: NOK strength versus international revenue streams

FENRIR's Risk Controls

Portfolio Management:

Position Limits: Maximum 3% single-name allocation across strategies
Hedging Instruments: Currency forwards for USD/EUR revenue exposure
Diversification: Combined exposure through broader Nordic industrial basket
Stop-Loss Discipline: Technical exit at NOK 320 representing 15% downside

Monitoring Framework:

Order Intake Tracking: Quarterly book-to-bill ratio analysis
Margin Progression: Defense versus maritime profitability trends
Policy Implementation: NATO spending commitment execution progress

ESG Integration & Sustainability Leadership

Environmental Impact Leadership

Carbon Reduction Commitments:

Science-Based Targets: 55% scope 1 emissions reduction by 2030
Technology Solutions: Autonomous vessels reducing maritime industry carbon footprint
Circular Economy: Ship retrofit extending vessel lifecycle versus new construction

Innovation Investment:

R&D Intensity: 8% of revenues invested in technology development annually
Patent Portfolio: Proprietary maritime automation and defense systems
Digital Twin Technology: Optimizing vessel performance and reducing emissions

Social Impact & Governance

Talent Development:

Diversity Leadership: 22% female representation in senior management
Employee Retention: 5.3% turnover rate indicating strong organizational culture
Global Workforce: 9,000 suppliers across 25 countries driving economic development

Governance Excellence:

Board Composition: 40% female board representation exceeding Nordic averages
Compliance Systems: Comprehensive anti-corruption framework following 2017 incidents
Transparency Standards: Science-based carbon reporting with annual progress updates

FENRIR's 12-Month Price Targets & Scenario Analysis

Base Case (55% probability): NOK 365

Key Assumptions:

NATO spending commitments provide modest earnings support
Maritime division benefits from accelerating digitalization trends
Multiple compression limited by diversified growth delivery

Catalysts:

Q2 2025 earnings demonstrate order backlog conversion
Additional defense contract wins from NATO modernization
Maritime technology platform monetization progress

Bull Case (25% probability): NOK 420

Assumptions:

Significant defense contract awards exceed market expectations
Maritime automation adoption accelerates post-regulatory clarity
Geopolitical tensions sustain premium defense valuations

Key Drivers:

JSM follow-on orders from additional F-35 operators
Autonomous vessel commercial deployment success
Strategic acquisitions enhancing technology leadership

Bear Case (20% probability): NOK 280

Risk Scenarios:

NATO defense spending commitments prove unrealistic
Maritime technology adoption slower than anticipated
Multiple compression to peer-average levels following growth disappointment

Downside Catalysts:

Geopolitical de-escalation reducing defense urgency
Economic pressures limiting government spending capacity
Technology integration challenges affecting margins

Implementation Strategy & Portfolio Construction

Strategic Positioning Framework

Entry Strategy:

Tactical Timing: Utilize NATO summit volatility for initial position building
Scaling Approach: Build 2-3% target allocation over 6-month period
Risk Management: Implement 15% stop-loss discipline with position review triggers

Monitoring Metrics:

Fundamental Indicators: Order intake, backlog conversion, margin progression
Technical Levels: Support at NOK 320, resistance at NOK 400
Catalyst Timeline: Q2 earnings, defense contract announcements, maritime partnerships

Portfolio Integration

Thematic Alignment:

Nordic Technology Leaders: Complement existing automation and digitalization exposure
Defense Infrastructure: Balanced approach versus pure-play defense concentration
Maritime Sustainability: ESG-aligned technology transformation exposure

Risk Budgeting:

Single-Name Limit: 3% maximum allocation within industrial technology sleeve
Sector Concentration: Monitor total defense exposure across portfolio
Geographic Diversification: Balance Nordic concentration with global revenue streams

FENRIR's Strategic Recommendation

Kongsberg Gruppen represents a sophisticated investment opportunity at the intersection of defense spending cycles and maritime technology transformation.
While near-term valuation concerns warrant caution, the company's diversified platform provides unique exposure to multiple structural growth themes with defensive characteristics.

Our analysis emphasizes the maritime division's undervalued technology leadership and the defense business's geopolitical hedge qualities.
The current valuation disconnect creates asymmetric opportunities for patient capital willing to navigate short-term volatility around NATO policy implementation.

Strategic Implementation:

Phased Entry: Build positions during NATO summit volatility
Long-Term Focus: 18-36 month investment horizon targeting maritime re-rating
Risk Discipline: Comprehensive hedging and position management protocols

Ready to access defense-maritime technology convergence with sophisticated risk management?
Contact FENRIR Global atwww.fenrir.fundto explore our Nordic Industrial Technology Strategy.

#DefenseInvesting #MaritimeTechnology #NordicEquities #TechnologyConvergence #AlternativeInvestments #FENRIRGlobal

FENRIR – Norwegian Private Wealth Fund Management

Karl Johans Gate 37
‍
Oslo, Norway

FENRIR FUND MANAGEMENT AS is an Alternative Investment Fund (AIF) registered and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) under the Norwegian AIF Act. VALHALLA CAPITAL AS serves as the licensed Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM), also registered with Finanstilsynet. Affiliates, including RAGNAROK FUND MANAGEMENT AS (Oslo), OLAV LIMITED, FENRIR GLOBAL LIMITED, FENRIR FUND MANAGEMENT LIMITED, GRAND GENERAL PARTNER LIMITED (London), and TRENT CAPITAL AS, operate under applicable Norwegian, EU, and UK regulations, including AIFMD and MiFID II. Restricted exclusively to professional investors per MiFID II, AIFMD, and Norwegian AIF Act (e.g., entities meeting ≥2 criteria: €20M balance sheet, €40M turnover, €2M own funds; individuals meeting ≥2 criteria: €500K portfolio, 10+ significant quarterly transactions over 4 quarters, relevant financial sector experience). Examples include pension funds, family offices, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Not marketed to, suitable for, or accessible by retail investors. This website provides general information and illustration envisaged about FENRIR FUND MANAGEMENT AS, VALHALLA CAPITAL AS, TRENT CAPITAL AS, and affiliates (collectively, "the Companies"), including RAGNAROK FUND MANAGEMENT AS, OLAV LIMITED, FENRIR GLOBAL LIMITED, FENRIR FUND MANAGEMENT LIMITED, and GRAND GENERAL PARTNER LIMITED. Content is not marketing material under AIFMD, nor an offer, solicitation, invitation, recommendation, or advice (investment, legal, tax, financial, or otherwise) to buy, sell, hold, or invest in any security, product, or vehicle. Investments require separate documentation, verification, private placement compliance, and a confidential offering memorandum from authorized representatives; rely solely on such materials and independent due diligence. Does not address or resolve employment, business, or operational disputes; these must use appropriate legal channels. Alternative investments (e.g., public markets, private equity, credit) involve substantial risks: potential loss of principal, volatility, illiquidity, regulatory changes. Past performance is not indicative of future results; no guarantees of outcomes or loss avoidance. Conduct own due diligence and consult independent advisors before decisions. Information is "as is," for illustrative purposes, subject to change without notice; no warranties (express/implied) on accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. The Companies, their officers, directors, employees, and agents (including Olav Trent) disclaim all liability for errors, omissions, damages (direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, punitive, e.g., loss of profits, data, goodwill), even if advised, and for claims of misrepresentation, fraud, or negligence. Users rely at own risk; third-party links/content accessed at own risk, without endorsement or responsibility. Intended for jurisdictions where access is lawful; users ensure local compliance and bear sole responsibility. Governed by Norwegian law (no conflict principles); disputes resolved exclusively via arbitration in Oslo under Norwegian Arbitration Association rules, waiving court litigation. Invalid provisions do not affect enforceability of others. Limited personal data (e.g., contact info) processed for legitimate purposes like professional inquiries, in compliance with GDPR and Norwegian laws; no third-party sharing unless legally required. GDPR rights: access (Art. 15), rectification (Art. 16), erasure (Art. 17), portability (Art. 20), objection (Art. 21). Contact: invest@fenrir.ch. All content (text, graphics, logos) owned by the Companies; protected by copyright © 2025 FENRIR FUND MANAGEMENT LIMITED. Unauthorized use, reproduction, or distribution prohibited. By accessing this site, you confirm you are a professional investor, agree to be bound by this disclaimer, and accept all terms. If not, exit immediately. Inquiries: invest@fenrir.ch or authorized channels only; unsolicited investment inquiries not considered.

FENRIR Fund Management

FENRIR – Europe Geopolitical & Energy Dislocation Strategy: Tactical Positioning in Ceasefire Risk, Energy Input Repricing, and Defense Momentum

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Geopolitical Event Risk – Ceasefire vs. Defense Momentum

2. Natural Gas Input Collapse – Chemicals Re-rating Potential

3. Oil Complex – From Risk Premium to Supply Normalization

Portfolio Construction & Allocation

Catalyst Timeline & Monitoring

Risk Assessment & Mitigation

FENRIR’s Strategic Conviction

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Defense and Aerospace Surge: NATO Spending Tailwinds

2. Banking Resilience: Capital-Light Revenue Growth

3. Industrials and Energy Transition: Infrastructure Boom

4. Software and Tech Enablement: Cloud Migration Acceleration

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Strategic Investment Framework

1. AI Leadership: Proprietary Intelligence Edge

2. Defense Tech Resilience: Nordic-Informed Allocation

3. Fintech and Cloud Efficiency: Value Reversion Plays

4. Emerging Innovators: High-Conviction New Entrants

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Strategic Investment Framework

1. AI Leadership: Proprietary Intelligence Edge

2. Defense Tech Resilience: Nordic-Informed Allocation

3. Fintech and Cloud Efficiency: Value Reversion Plays

4. Emerging Innovators: High-Conviction New Entrants

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Strategic Investment Framework

1. Tokenized Equities and Infrastructure: Building the New Rails

2. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs): Superior Crypto Exposure Vehicles

3. Real-World Asset Tokenization: Global Capital Access

4. Stablecoins and Programmable Finance: The Foundation Layer

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Catalyst Timeline and Monitoring

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Hedging and Mitigation Strategies

FENRIR's Strategic Conviction

FENRIR Contrarian Investment Themes

Capitalizing on Market Dislocations and Sentiment Extremes

Market Context & Strategic Positioning

Strategic Investment Framework

1. China Equity Opportunity: Structural Mispricing at Scale

2. Emerging Markets Leadership: Structural Outperformance

3. Real Estate Contrarian Plays: Value at Historic Discounts

4. Small-Cap Value Resurgence: Operational Leverage to Recovery

Implementation Strategy

Portfolio Construction Framework

Risk Management and Hedging

Risk Assessment & Portfolio Integration

Principal Investment Risks

Catalyst Timeline

FENRIR – Europe Geopolitical & Energy Dislocation Strategy:
Tactical Positioning in Ceasefire Risk, Energy Input Repricing, and Defense Momentum